Replies to post #132784 on Biotech Values

[Double_Bagel]

I guess the Nov numbers are down a little because of the competition from Sanofi's temporary AG. Hope it picks back up right away in December.

[DewDiligence]

Monthly Branded/Generic US Lovenox Scripts

I’ve converted Rocky’s weekly script numbers to average weekly
figures for each month, which gives a better indication of the trend.
(See #msg-68906536 and #msg-68710933 for quarterly data.)

When SNY launched an “authorized” generic in late October, the stated
intention was to take some of NVS’ market share in the retail segment,
which is what these script numbers track. (Scripts for SNY’s AG are not
shown in the table below.) However, SNY announced on Nov 30 that
the AG has been withdrawn, so NVS’ share of the retail segment will
presumably remain at a high level after all.

 
                           Script 
         Avg Wkly Scripts  Share of 
 Month   Branded  Generic  Generic 
 1111      7,415   47,067   86.4%

1011 7,941 50,435 86.4%
0911 7,636 48,930 86.5%
0811 7,592 48,767 86.5%
0711 7,832 48,854 86.2%
0611 8,069 50,243 86.2%
0511 8,534 52,765 86.1%
0411 9,213 53,041 85.2%
0311 12,767 48,278 79.1%
0211 22,769 35,025 60.6%
0111 25,279 31,124 55.2%
1210 25,767 29,332 53.2%
1110 28,082 28,081 50.0%
1010 30,398 26,412 46.5%
0910 31,319 23,304 42.7%
0810 37,611 16,876 31.0%

[Rocky3]

After asking many times for script numbers for Dec, Jan, and now Feb, I was told that they will no longer be given out. I was told that the lastest numbers showed mLov at 74%, AG at 14%, and Lov at 11%, with aLov not meaningful. Hopefully, I can get at least that color going forward.

Interesting that AG is coming mostly out of mLov and that aLov is still not in the marketplace in any numbers. Could Watson not really be selling? Or is it selling only in hospital setting? Ideas?