Replies to post #131923 on Biotech Values

[acgood]

MRK seems to exude the air that they think they have whatever pieces in place for biosimilars and are now just executing as they wait for more regulatory guidance. I would need to see some indication that they are looking to make an additional, significant investment in the field (which an MNTA deal would presumably require).

For SNY, the reason is simpler and more petty. As I believe I've posited before, I am just skeptical that SNY has the managerial fortitude to do a FOB deal with MNTA after getting burned on Lovenox. But perhaps I weight this too heavily in comparison to the proclivity to protect a history of branded biologics against the potential of generic competition that you have discussed in the past.

[acgood]

Or, to put it another way that aligns with you method of thinking - the sum of the probabilities for all possible "wildcard" FOB partners is greater than the probability I would assign to a deal with either MRK or SNY. That isn't incongruous with SNY and MRK being less flawed than any other individual prospective partner.