Replies to post #5118 on Your Economy (No Politics) (YE1)

[FinancialAdvisor]

Great stuff Bullwinkle, I hear your "spin of the day" loud & clear, truthful & inciteful... but most importantly accurate & important in today's INSANE marketplace!

As far as the market & technicals go, if you look closely at the Nasdaq Composite, starting with the first-thing June high and connect it to the next high and follow through to now, and do the same with the 2 low's in June... you have a potential fan, and a bearish one at that if it fails to break the upside as it will be a triple-top vs. a double bottom... and I'm sure you can see the irony in this as what you said about the previous 2 day decline and compared it to now... cause ironically it could potentially be just that... the inverse move before the "true" sentiment and market direction actually kick in!

We'll see... kudos on the write-up again this week... if I ever decide to get my foot into a business or market-related (media) publication... you'd be my lead columnist ;)

[marketmaven]

Retirement Benes? H*No Say WalMart in Robot "Hiring"

July 8, 2005 9:19 AM PDT
Why so nervous about robots, Wal-Mart?
http://news.com.com/2061-10788_3-5779674.html

Wal-Mart-bashing appears to be a national sport these days, with legions of Wal-Mart critics growing faster than the retail empire can build new stores. In particular, the company's labor practices are a lightning rod for criticism. So it's no wonder that the company has struck a rather defensive note regarding a rumored interest in robotic labor.

I got a dose of Wal-Mart's defensive posture first-hand last week when reporting a feature story News.com published today on the future of inventory-checking robots. After an executive at Frontline Robotics informed me that Wal-Mart is eyeing robot technology, I called Wal-Mart for confirmation.

Wal-Mart representative Christi Gallagher, the company's spokeswoman on supply chain and technology issues, took my call. She also happens to be the media point person on labor relations and employment litigation.

As soon as I mentioned robots, Gallagher seemed eager to end the call. "We are not looking into robots in any way, shape or form," she said abruptly. I tried probing for more, but she had nothing further to offer.

The response was curious because, when a public relations person is faced out-of-the-blue with questions on a random topic like robots, he or she would typically pause, jot down some notes, and say something along the lines of, "Gosh, I have no idea about that, but I'll check into it for you."

And I am apparently not the first to hit a Wal-Mart nerve with a robot story. As I noted in today's story, the company's attorneys took a particular interest in an eWeek report in May about a robot Wal-Mart is apparently testing in a Utah store. The robot, developed at Utah State University, is designed to guide visually impaired shoppers and locate products for them.

Wal-Mart's lawyers called the university after it learned of the story, and a university representative then retracted earlier statements about Wal-Mart's interest in investing in further development of the robots.

So why is Wal-Mart so touchy about robots? My hunch is that Wal-Mart's interest in robots goes far beyond helping the visually impaired shop. I think it's intrigued by the notion of using robots in its warehouses, distribution centers and stores to monitor and check inventory -- a job mostly done by people today, as one Frontline Robotics executive noted.

"After hours, robots could run around stores in a systematic pattern and take a complete inventory of all the shelves," said Rob Richards, chief operating officer of Frontline. "We have people now that do that."

But to my mind, robot-talk is the least of Wal-Mart's labor woes, which include accusations of sexual discrimination, low pay, poor benefits, worker safety violations and child labor law violations. The company has also been embroiled in widespread overtime pay disputes and is in trouble with the Department of Labor over employing illegal immigrants.

So, Wal-Mart, relax about robots!

Posted by Alorie Gilbert

[Bullwinkle]

~:~:~Market Trend Update for the Week Ahead~:~:~



OVERVIEW:
It’s that time once again to review the past week and look into the next. As mentioned in the previous update with which this post replies; Just as I had reservations about the decisiveness of the 2-day drop back in the end of June, this move seems eerily familiar. While the easiest thing to do would be to proclaim new highs are on the horizon, this current move gives me reason to pause before passing any judgment. While I still hold some reservations, mainly being that the internals do not reflect the market strength we are seeing, we continue to grind higher. After the way this year had started out I did not believe that we would be seeing new highs or even an attempt of new highs at this juncture, but it is what it is and here we are. The R2K and SPX have hit the mark, while the COMP looks to be next with the DJIA continuing to lag. The Equity fund inflows for the week were $3.427 Bln with 74% or $2.542 Bln finding its way into ETF’s. Excluding ETF activity Equity funds reported net inflows $885 Mln with 67% or $591 Mln going into Non-domestic securities and $1.188 Bln into International funds. We also saw Money Market funds report net outflows of -$2.973 Bln with Taxable MM funds reporting net inflows of $4.058 Bln and Tax-exempt MM funds reporting net outflows of -$7.031 Bln. The CoT’s data still reflects very low open interest on the DJIA and COMP. As for position accumulation, little action on the DJIA, but some Commercial short positions on the SPX and COMP with the SPX activity being the most notable. As for Oil, the U$D and Gold, we saw some volatility in oil mainly due to the inventory numbers and psychological havoc of hurricane season. All in all Oil finished out the week above $59bbl. The U$D had fallen to around 88.5, but is starting to move back up and Gold has been getting clobbered, even on U$D weakness. The U$D currently sits just shy of 90 and Gold recovered to $421 oz. The CRB, which continues to be extremely volatile, finished off the week around 309. Bond prices have been taking a dive while 10-yrs and 30-yrs Notes are showing considerable strength wit yields at 4.175% and 4.405% respectively…


ECONOMIC #’s:

 
 Date	         Event	       For  Actual  Forecast  Prior  Orig 
  
 Jul 13	Export Prices ex-ag.	Jun	-0.1%	  NA	 -0.4%	- 
 Jul 13	Import Prices ex-oil	Jun	-0.4%	  NA	 -0.3%	- 
 Jul 13	Trade Balance	      May -$55.3B  -$56.0B  -$56.9B  -$57.0B 
 Jul 13	Treasury Budget	      Jun	$22.4B $21.0B $19.1B	 - 
 Jul 14	Core CPI	            Jun	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	- 
 Jul 14	CPI	                   Jun	0.0%	0.1%	-0.1%	- 
 Jul 14	Initial Claims	      07/09	336K	325K	320K	319K 
 Jul 14	Retail Sales	            Jun	1.7%	0.9%	-0.3%	-0.5% 
 Jul 14	Retail Sales ex-auto	Jun	0.7%	0.6%	0.0%	-0.2% 
 Jul 15	Business Inventories	May	0.1%	0.2%	0.3%	- 
 Jul 15	Core PPI	            Jun	-0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	- 
 Jul 15	NY Empire State Index	Jul	23.9	10.0	10.5	11.6 
 Jul 15	PPI	                   Jun	0.0%	0.2%	-0.6%	- 
 Jul 15	Capacity Utilization	Jun	80.0%	79.7%	79.4%	- 
 Jul 15	Industrial Production	Jun	0.9%	0.5%	0.3%	0.4% 
 Jul 15	Mich Sentiment-Prel.	Jul	96.5	95.0	96.0	-

MBA Mortgage Applications volumes dropped 7.2% in the holiday-shortened week ended July 8 compared to the prior week. On a seasonally adjusted basis, applications for mortgages to buy homes fell 6.1% on a week-to-week basis, while refinancing applications were down 8.4%. The 4-week moving average for overall mortgage activity slipped 2.9% from the year-ago period. Refinancings accounted for 45.1% of total applications last week, off from the prior week's 45.7%, while adjustable-rate mortgages dropped to 27.9% -- the lowest level since March 2004 -- from 30.7%. Average contract interest rates for 30- and 15-year fixed-rate mortgages increased to 5.62% and 5.21%, respectively, from 5.58% and 5.18% in the last week of June. One-year ARMs averaged 4.56% last week, down from 4.60% a week earlier.

Oil Inventories as reported by the DoE (Dept of Energy) and API (American Petroleum Institute). Crude according to DoE fell by 3.9 Mln bbls, but according to API fell by 1.4 Mln bbls. Gasoline according to DoE fell by 2.7 Mln bbls, but according to API rose by 684K bbls. Distillates according to DoE rose by 3.2 Mln bbls, but according to API rose by 5.8 Mln bbls.

Next week Econ activity slows down considerably as we will get Building Permits, Housing Starts, Initial Claims, LEI, Philly Fed and the FOMC Minutes …


Ever wonder why… the U$D is on the rise while the pumping of bubbles and historic deficits continue to go unabated or that the bond market rallies and yields fall while the Fed has increased interest rates by 3-fold or that stocks that have been subjected to SEC probes and reduced to junk bond status are on the rise or that non-existent inflation has seen the price of oil triple in the last 3½ years?

Ever wonder why… pension funds are being siphoned off to pay down corporate debt or that savings rates are at all-time lows while the USA relies on foreign investment to keep the country afloat or that America's total debt is increasing more than 2-times faster than the entire economy's national income and the size of Government has grown 4-times faster than the economy which is depressing the private sectors share?

Ever wonder why… the educational system is under-funded and grossly mismanaged as American high school 12th graders scored near the bottom of all nations, yet prison construction is on the rise or that job creation has been nil while illegal immigration and the outsourcing of high paying jobs continues at an unprecedented rate or that the minimum wage has remained at $5.15 an hour since 1996 and real wages have decreased while CEO and board member payouts and bonuses have increased exponentially?

Ever wonder why… the divide between the rich and poor is ever widening while the middle class gets squeezed into poverty or that the healthcare reform act does nothing to address rising costs of drugs and treatment while the new energy bill does nothing to repair a sagging infrastructure or that the USA is the only G-8 country to reject the Kyoto Treaty protocol on climate change and the effect of greenhouse gases?

Ever wonder why… consumer debt continues to pile up fostered by the lure of easy money and cheap imported goods or that the existence of no money down – no interest loans being offered not only to the general public are also being offered to illegal immigrants or that the bankruptcy laws have been changed and are about to take effect?

Fundamentals do matter and forsaken reality bites...

Knowledge is power...


WHAT CAN WE EXPECT NOW?:
While new highs have been accomplished or met by the R2K and SPX, the COMP has yet to get there and the DJIA is still lagging. While it is almost certain that the highs will be tested on the COMP, the current internals do not really support market strength (in other words conviction is absent). Don’t get me wrong, some days are very impressive, but others not so impressive and in a bull move with the brass ring in plain sight, I would like to see strength across the board amongst the indices and internally as well price movement. Maybe some of it has to do with Options Expiry, but weak volume mixed with a couple of days of decliners outpacing advancers and the overbought conditions could mean we are in for a respite or this run is getting long in the tooth. The R2K has made its new high, but has turned back down. The SPX is right at its March highs and over the next 2-weeks we will be getting the meat and potatoes of earnings results. The window of opportunity is wide open for the next couple of weeks, after that who knows. Even if we do take out the new highs, I cannot help but wonder what the other side of this strength will look like as we move into the middle of summer and the 2nd half of the year. One thing that I do find of interest is the inverse H&S on the COMP, which formed the left shoulder on the New Year decline, the head on the drop to 1890 and the right shoulder currently playing out. The neckline is at 2100 and possibly points to another 150 points from here. If the move is widely anticipated, it may not come to fruition. Time will tell… As for Oil, U$D and Gold; I believe we will see continued volatility in Oil, but does not look like it is on the verge of a breakdown just yet. The U$D may test 91 again, but I feel it will either be rejected or move sideways for an undetermined amount of time and Gold most likely continues to weaken although we may see some pockets of strength. The Bradley Turn on/around the 13th was a non-event for the most part although we are still under the influence of this date as the indices have stalled at their current levels. We also have a Full Moon coming up on the 21st and for those interested in moon phases, an interesting study at the following link: http://www.isis.ch/download/dokumente/moonstruck.pdf

Technically speaking, Bullish Advisors are at 54.5%% with Bearish Advisors at 22.2%. The VIX/VXN are at all-time lows, nothing even close to these levels has been seen since 1994. CBOE Equity P/C Ratio is at .540 with a 21DMA of .543 as the range continues its downtrend in a very tight range. The RSI 5-Days are Very Overbought across the board. The $NASI Daily (Summation) continues its uptrend while the $NAMO Daily (McClellan) has been in a downtrend and has breached the 50DMA . The $NAHL Daily (Highs/Lows) is in a downtrend and headed towards the 50/200DMA in which the 50DMA has barely crossed over the 200DMA. The overall uptrend since mid-May is still intact. The $NAAD Daily (Advance/Decline) has turned up off of a strong down move. The BP%'s are mostly moving higher with the exception of the BPNDX which is oscillating.

Charts for the indices and indicators mentioned are posted below for your viewing pleasure…






























NOTE:
I continue to hold a USPIX position, which I will flip to UOPIX when appropriate.

CORE:
Funds; HSGFX, PCRDX, PRPFX, QRAAX, RSNRX ,TAVIX. Individual Stocks; ANO, BHP, SWWC

SWING: XLE

Disclaimer:
This disclosure is not a recommendation to buy or sell or to do as I do. It is only to give my thoughts on current market conditions and share the positions that I am holding for tracking purposes only. I am not a day trader and only attempt to identify up/down trends and play the swings.