Replies to post #14260 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[DonShimoda]

biomaven, wondering what you think about the idea the company floated last week to use the confirmatory study to run a head to head trial with gleevec? If ponatinib is able to demonstrate an improved molecular response rate over gleevec, do you think it may allow the company to make the case that high risk pts should start on pona or, at the very least, position pona more competitively in the 2nd line vis-a-vis sprycel/tasigna? Since sprycel/tasigna have both run 1st line CP trials vs gleevec, running a similar trial indirectly allows a comparison between pona and sprycel/tasigna without immediately running the head to head, mult-arm trial that will be needed down the road.

[bladerunner1717]

Peter,

Is it not possible that T513I is more prevalent than you think? Is it not possible that better testing will show that the mutation exists in many more CML patients that was once first thought?

Dew's point about Pona being a "niche drug" sounds very similar to the arguments that Gleevec was just a "niche drug." How did such a "niche drug" turn into a $3 billion blockbuster? Where did the analysts go wrong in their thinking? Could they (and Dew) be wrong about Pona and for the same reasons? (I'm asking seriously; I don't know the answer, but I'd love to hear the explanation as to why Gleevec sales were so grossly underestimated.)

You know a lot more about it that I do, but it seems that when some of these cancer drugs get approved, BP has been able to expand their use in other indications as time goes by and further testing gets done. (Afinitor and Abraxane come to mind immediately.)


Bladerunner