Replies to post #14199 on Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[ariadndndough]

little room error that goes for all companies. sometimes i think dew forgets what the name of the game is and thats to make money. he trashed dndn from day one. well some including me made tons and tons of money. he talks mnta all day long well dndn at one timed performed better then mnta ever will most likely. but he would never admit that?????

as for aria sure there is no room for error but the chances look pretty darn good. and for biotech investing thats pretty good. as for aria chart over the last 3 years looks good to me and i think it will only get better.



dough

[bellweather1]

I think my main point is that Pona alone(if it continues to follow the performance path that it has and "should") will get us up into the high teens by itself(though possibly over a longer time frame than currently anticipated)without consideration of Ariad's other assets.

Since I don't think the likelihood of "error"(in terms of basic performance) is meaningful for Pona in cml(relative to the potential for error in any drug related endeavor),

that only leaves the other programs for "room for error" consideration(i.e., IMO, the potential for downside error is already largely taken care of.).

Therefore, to my mind, there may be more substantial room for error on the upside in terms of the ultimate performance of 113, etc., but with pona in the bag, that's the kind of potential error I'm not too worried about.

Another way of putting it would be to say that, although there may be very little room for error, there is even less likelihood of it(essentially my position).

Place your bets!

Regards,

bw

[NP1986]

I think what Dew's main point is, is that there is very little (if any) room for error.

I agree with Dew's point that ponatinib approval based on the PACE results may already be "baked in" to the current PPS. In that respect, you are correct that any little hiccup could send the share price crashing. It would be a fairly similar story to what INCY is going through right now.