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downsideup

11/14/11 1:58 PM

#110936 RE: akeygon #110934

Correct... it deals with a range of grades used in tools. Steel production is complex stuff, and the alloys and processes employed are complex.

It's still generally true that using niobium is a benefit, not just in tool steels... although their discussion does a good job of highlighting the issues we've been chatting about in specific context of that niche.

In steels where there are complex alloy issues, niobium use can save a lot of $ by significantly reducing the need for more expensive alloy components. A little niobium replaces a lot of something else that costs a lot more than niobium does...

In specialty steels that's important, but, it is still a fairly limited market relative to the mass of steel produced.

Where the larger impacts will be felt in larger markets... is when you have the new technology installed in mills that have a capacity to routinely process lower grade "bulk" materials at higher temperatures... and then, a little bit of niobium in the mix can reduce the amount of IRON you need to get the desired engineering properties in the products being made.

Niobium steel costs more to produce, mostly because of the cost in the equipment required to use it, and some due to the higher temperature processing... but, then, it gives you the same properties in a product that has 10 to 30% less iron in it... so, again, the higher initial cost involved in enabling its use is greatly overwhelmed by the benefits in reduced materials costs.

And, we're still REALLY early in the transition... so early that niobium use is likely to sustain its growth for decades. You should still expect to see "specialty" steels dominate the discussion for a while. And that "niche" product focus will tend to make plant flexibility an issue... but, again, a newer plant has designed ability to adapt that older ones won't.