even when taking into account the advent of generic Gleevec
It's actually paradoxical, but possibly Ariad is better off if new patients are started on Gleevec than if they are started on one of the 2nd-generation drugs. The Gleevec failure rate is so much higher that getting 1/3 of the Gleevec failures (and they eventually might end up doing better than that) might be better than getting 75% of the Sprycel or Tasigna failures.
I basically see the very low-end of worldwide peak sales for pona in CML in the $500m range. That assumes 3rd line and some moderate 2nd line use but no frontline use. With extensive 2nd line and some 1st line high risk use, peak sales could be 3X or better than that.
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