Replies to post #130989 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

Assuming that ponatinib is priced at $60,000 per annum, that is approximately $90M in potential annual revenue based on just T315I patients and patients failing both Sprycel and Tasigna. It's not spectacular, but still a significant amount of revenue - again, assuming US sales only. IMO, ponatinib will eventually be partnered in Europe - so if you throw in royalties of $15M, this still makes ARIA pretty good value - IMHO, of course.

I would respectfully submit that it's going to take a whole lot more than this $90M opportunity to justify current valuation, let alone provide meaningful upside to the valuation. Of course, there are much larger opportunities in broader patient populations but that's where the risks that Dew alluded to come in (e.g., generic concerns, reimbursement risks, etc.). '113 could be interesting down the line, as Peter alludes to, and I'll keep my eye on it as that could be the big value driver for ARIA and potentially cause me to change my mind on the stock. But, for now, I'm going to remain on the sidelines.