I've been thinking it may be a good opportunity as well and started reviewing the company. Hammer does a really nice job of writing up company analysis I appreciate you and I believe Peter recommending him a while back.
I do have some reservations I'm trying to get past before I take a position (and it may very well recover before I do) not necessarily in order: 1-Not 1 but 2 companies passed on Cabo that is especially worrisome. 2-Management creditability 3-Even though they cut costs they still burn quite a lot of money. 4-I don't feel comfortable with a pain endpoint maybe bad memories from satraplatin (GPC/SPPI) so it leaves the 307 trial (IMO) as the one that will determine the success/failure in CRPC. 5-I liked Hammers discussion about the bone scans. I have to do more research to feel comfortable the improvement seen can be correlated with survival and not for some other reason.
That aside I actually like quite a lot about what I've found thus far. Having an indication with a potential relatively near term approval and being able to attract several partners and seemingly an engine capable of producing additional compounds.
EXEL - IMO the article is incomplete since it does not include the impact of competition to 184. Given the success of MDV3100 (albeit at a different stage of the disease) the CRPC market is now getting crowded. 184 will have to differentiate itself and prove to be better than drugs like 3100 that will already be in the market by the time the 307 trial concludes.
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