it is even possible that we've already seen the 20wk high, bliss...some indexes have already sniffed the low end of their 20wk targets...you're "July high" scenario is cyclically feasible...
the 4-4.5 year component is getting on in age and we are also on the backside the latest 80wk cycle...i expect the bulk of profits to made on the short side (at least for a while)...that said, even during the bear runs of the larger cycles (eg. 4-4.5yr), it may be prudent to play the long side coming out of 20, 40 and 80 wk lows...
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