I have no problem with the way you are using the term "duopoly".
So let's get past what we name this.
Clearly SNY believes that they have something to gain by different packaging and perhaps using alternate distribution channels or they would not do it. I would suggest that while SNY will still be making the big calls and setting the framework for the AG that it likely will have different product managers that will have enough latitude that the character of the distributions will vary.
I have argued that SNY can gain in the short run (up to 1 year), because of the responsiveness of the pharmacy channel which has been developed the infrastructure to respond quickly to multiple generics competing on price.
I see two markets, pharmacy and institutional.
I see two relevant time frames, up to 1 year and longer than 1 year. In the up to one year time frame, SNY has a reasonable chance of taking back market share - that could shoot past 60%. But in the longer term, I would expect duopoly market splits to reemerge, but this time SNY may end up on top holding up to 60% of the dollar market share.
This additional competition which will have a price component will degrade the whole. That is the case in a nutshell for SNY backing off the AG. But it is a call that could go either way, depending on how they rate Sandoz and the time frames they expect until another generic hits the market.
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