Replies to post #130054 on Biotech Values

[iwfal]

I presume AZN took your rule of thumb into account when they projected the original anticipated end date. Or am I missing something?

I am sure AZN did do modeling and projection of the expected unblinding time. However it wouldn't surprise me at all if ARRY did NOT do such a formal projection - as a general rule small biotech is remarkably incompetent about such things.

By the way trying to anticipate results from length of study has proven fatal in Biotech in the past.

Agreed - so no, I am not trying to do such a reading of the tea leaves. I made explicit mention of the fact that generally the range on the historical comparison of any such tea leaf reading is very wide - which is a large part of what makes it 'fatal' to do such 'anticipation'. I was just creating the numbers corresponding to mcbio's implicit tea leaf reading.