Replies to post #130027 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

BIIB/ELN start phase-3b trial of Tysabri in secondary-progressing MS:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/ASCEND-Study-Evaluate-bw-3633786559.html?x=0

Why this trial is characterized as phase-3b (rather than phase-3) is unclear insofar as there is no pending regulatory submission I know of in SPMS.

[DewDiligence]

Copaxone vs Tysabri Sales in US Market

[Updated for 4Q11 Tysabri results.]


The US market is the one of consequence for MNTA investors insofar as
this is where NVS/MNTA applied to approval to sell generic Copaxone.
Below are quarterly Tysabri and Copaxone US sales for the past three
years with the recent 1-year and 2-year growth rates.

Although Tysabri is still growing rapidly on a 1-year and 2-year basis,
there was no growth to speak of in 4Q11 relative to 3Q11.

 
       -------TYSABRI-------    ------COPAXONE------- 
       US $M  1-Year  2-Year    US $M  1-Year  2-Year   
       Sales  Change  Change    Sales  Change  Change 
 4Q11   196    +21%    +50%       *         
 3Q11   197    +31%    +50%      752    +28%    +39% 
 2Q11   183    +26%    +46%      682    +29%    +56% 
 1Q11   170                      624 
 4Q10   162                      655 
 3Q10   151                      588 
 2Q10   145                      531 
 1Q10   135                      513 
 4Q09   137                      509 
 3Q09   131                      540 
 2Q09   125                      438 
 1Q09   116                      430

*Teva reports 4Q11 Copaxone sales on 2/15/12.