Replies to post #129516 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

If they want to succeed, they shouldn't. They rushed original Viaject formula to phase 3. Even if it were approved, it would be commercial bust due to discomfort at injection site.

Phase 1 and 2 insulin program doesn't take that long, You can finish both in a little bit over one year. Look at HALO. One of key reasons why many small biotech have lower phase 3 success rate is they rush, don't think through by taking too many chances. The odds aren't with you in the casino.

I hear you on all those points but, at the same time, time isn't exactly on BIOD's side given that they have just a little over a year left of cash and can't assume they'll be in a position to raise cash on favorable terms given the valuation. Absent a partnership, they may have to take the boom or bust path forward of moving straight into Phase 3.

[ghmm]

I agree with what you say about smaller biotechs tending to rush things. Its great if it works but seems much more risky and other then a few (ERT's) can think of repeat successes.

For what its worth, while the individual HALO trials were short what is it about 10 or so Phase 1/2 studies a bunch of short trials can still take a while :-).