Deltasaint: According to Baltia's "Schedule of Events" posted here earlier, the "Proposed Operation Start Date" is 129 days after the manuals have been submitted. Working from a manuals submission date of 10/18/11, that would put the POSD sometime near the end of February, 2012, if there is no slippage.
As for my intuition, well, I'd allow for a little slippage.