I want to see the S&P break above 1220 and hold before calling the current situation bullish. The market keeps breaking below the trendline running from the last 4-year low, and this may be a clue that the 4-year cycle is peaking or has peaked.
I grant everything you have said, Airedale. But the market action out of the last 5-week low was tentative at best even though it squeezed out a couple strong days just before turning down hard. I see the possibility of tapping 1230 before turning down into the 20-week low, but this doesn't seem bullish to me. More like an offering of crumbs at a lackluster top.
I see the possibility that the market cuts a little deeper and builds a more substantial base at the 10-week low before moving into a summer rally.
All speculative possibilities until lines get crossed and the market defines itself.
So what I want to see is how the market actually handles this 10-week low. I want to see whether or not we cut deeper. If the market holds at this level, builds a substantial base, and then crosses lines upward on strength, that I will call bullish.
No bias.
Black
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