Replies to post #129102 on Biotech Values

[ghmm]

HALO/BIOD

I would have liked to get more top-line numbers than Halo released in their PR but I seem to recall them doing similar things in the past. They seem to be one of THOSE companies that cares about the integrity of the data for presentation rather than shareholders wanting to know now :-). I believe jq pointed that these were smaller Phase 2 studies still I would be curious on overall numbers of Hypoglycemia.

If it is indeed Humalog that BIOD is essentially trying to improve upon, I would think LLY might be more inclined to partner with BIOD since I would think that LLY might be more interested in a potentially better version of their own drug than an entirely new drug altogether. (This is assuming that LLY thinks Humalog needs to be, and can be, improved upon. I would think they would at least think the former given that Humalog is set to go generic in a few years.)

I am not that familiar with BIOD, Halozyme's technology wouldn't be a *new* drug just PH20+Humalog. If Lilly is apt to partner I wouldn't see that as being one of the key considerations (at least between these two options)

[jq1234]

I don't think the PR specified a stat sig improvement.

I take "with superior reductions in post-prandial glucose excursions in the PH20 insulin analog arms." as stat significant.

Do you view this news for HALO's analog as bullish, bearish, or neutral for BIOD and its potentially improved analog?

I really don't know what BIOD's approach to analog is, thus tough to say. If it were for UF HI, I would say neutral. For analog, if I have to give an answer, I have to say neutral to bearish simply because someone else succeeded in similar area and well ahead of your development.

As I said before, insulin has big enough market to allow two UFI players.

I would think LLY might be more inclined to partner with BIOD

I'd say SNY is more likely. SNY's Apidra is newer rapid analog, that is lagging the other two. To me, it is more likely to be modified to differentiate itself from the other two. HALO used Apidra as leading in titration period in their phase 2 trial. So it hasn't been tested by HALO in combination with PH20. HALO on the other hand might be interesting to both NVO/LLY and other insulin biosimilar programs.