Replies to post #129028 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

If a settlement is going to occur, it's presumably going to be before the judge renders a decision, though, right?

I presume you’re talking about a Judge’s decision on whether to issue a PI. Originally, I thought that the period after limited expedited discovery and before the Judge’s decision on a PI (i.e. the period we are in now) was the most likely time for a settlement to occur; it (IMO) still is the most likely time for a settlement in terms of probability density. However, the period in question runs for only seven days, so the absolute probability of a settlement during this seven-day period is modest; if I had to put a number on it, I would say 15%.

I think the cumulative probability of a settlement at some point before the litigation has run its course remains high.