Replies to post #128801 on Biotech Values

[DonShimoda]

I've been following along as well and have been waiting patiently for the original poster to actual make his point.

[iwfal]

Restatement:

1) disease is 100% fatal in one week if not treated

2) the test for the disease has a 30% false pos rate

3) the test for the disease has a 10% false neg rate

4) the true incidence of the disease among those tested is 1%

5) if you test positive for the disease do you:

A) take a drug that always cures disease but kills 20% of patients from it's side effects

OR

B) take a drug that saves only 70 % from disease mort - but with relatively benign side effects (I.e. No one dies from side effects)