In this case, for me to disagree with the "we can do the numbers" crowd in no way implies I think the trial is unlikely to hit.
I think there has to be a middle ground there. It's not "I can do the numbers and that's it" OR "the numbers game never works".
I concede you didn't really say the latter. And I should be more careful in my sweeping statements about biases on this board. My experience has been the way I said it is, but my view is narrow -- only regarding a few (out of favor here) stocks.