Rancho, first of all Im just an individual inestor like you who just happens to have invested primarily in small cap oil stocks. I dont have any connections in the oil industry whatsoever.
Its hard to quantify exactly how each event would impact share price. The reason? The stock market rarely reacts the way you expect it to.
As I said before, just about the time when we all start believeing ERHC will not move up in share price anytime soon, then it will unexpectedly start to run. That is the nature of the stock market. Expect the unexpected.
Bottom line: I wouldnt be out of ERHC right now. If I were and it began to take off I would be kicking myself for years.Ive made that mistake before on another stock and I will never make that same mistake again. Just when you least expect it ERHC will start to run. I just hope someone doesnt attempt to put a cap on the run by dumping shares like they did on awards day.
With $60 oil events will move quickly so that greatly works to our advantage. They will make the JDZ the number #1 priority because they will want to drill on their properties with the largest potential targets. So this bodes well for PSC's getting done quickly and drilling rigs becoming available.
Rancho you asked for the average investor. But oil indutry people and wall streetshould react more enthusiastically in the short run on PSC's being finalized etc. For average investor:
PSC finalized - Miminmal
Drilling Program Announced - Buzz will begin
Drilling program announced - 3-6 months some will begin to rotate into ERHC
Drilling Program announced 6+ months - People will wait several months before buying in
Drilling Begun - Enthusiasm will be great
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