Replies to post #17183 on Mattu's Tax Loss Picks (MATTY)

[Phil(Hot Rod Chevy)]

From: Phil(bullrider) 5/17/2000 12:50:00 AM
To: gladman who wrote () #346 of 951

To all longs:

Gloat while you can because this dog is gonna die.

Have fun,
Phil

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=13723699

From: Phil(bullrider) 7/6/2000 11:31:19 PM
To: vladz who wrote (457) Read Replies (2) #461 of 951

v,

After reading both the bull and bear opinions on KREM, it is no surprise that I view the bear opinion as more valid. This is not a tech stock people. It should be valued at a somewhat reasonable valuation. I believe most current longs are retail investors because of the low volume and the hype.

I noticed that almost twice as many people viewed the bull's argument more valid than the bear's argument.

Go figure.

I guess it's simply easier to view life through rose colored glasses. I should know. Until I was introduced to the Internet, I was an eternal optimist where stocks were concerned. I always wondered about the volatility and the reasons.

Let's discuss a few points.

The bull posted:

Is the stock overvalued at 70 times next year's earnings? It might appear that way at first. But let me ask you to consider how many times earnings one would have been willing to pay for McDonald's (NYSE: MCD) back when it was just 150 units
strong?

http://www.fool.com/duelingfools/2000/duelingfools00070503.htm

Now, since MCD was mentioned as a comparison, let's discuss it.

I could not find out how many stores MCD owned/franchised in 1965, but I found this:

By 1960 Ray had opened 200 restaurants throughout the USA. In 1961 he bought the McDonald brothers' share of the
business for $3 million and in 1965 the company went public and became the McDonald's Corporation.

http://community-2.webtv.net/CadillacJackDJ/History/

One could not have bought stock in McDonalds when they owned 150 stores, so the bull argument seems lame and flawed.

I also found this:

In 1965 McDonald's went public with the company's first offering on the stock exchange. A hundred shares of stock costing $2,250 dollars that day would have multiplied into 74,360 shares today, worth over $2.8 million on December 31, 1998. In 1985 McDonald's was added to the 30-company Dow Jones Industrial Average

http://www.mcdonalds.com/corporate/info/history/history3/index.html

IOW, MCD went public in 1965 @ $22.5 per share with somewhere over 200 stores. I could not find market cap back that
far.

Now, concerning present valuation, Kevin posted that current valuation per store for KREM is 6.3MM

Current valuation per store for MCD now seems to be somewhere around 1.7MM.

If I had to guess, I would guess a lot more dollars pass thru an MCD store per day than a KREM store.

Here is the MCD split history:

http://www.mcdonalds.com/corporate/investor/mcdstock/dividend/split_history/index.html

I doubt seriously KREM will match that without some serious revenue growth.

Two more points:

MCD current P/E 22%

KREM current P/E 103.65%

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/research/quote.gsp?s=krem&domain=Quote

I currently have no position on KREM nor MCD, but am seriously considering a short position on KREM.

Have fun,
Phil

http://www.siliconinvestor.com/readmsg.aspx?msgid=14006089



LOL

Have fun,
Phil