Replies to post #402920 on Zeev's Turnips Patch-No Politics (ZEEV)

[Sherlock356]

You might be right. Although historically the market is always unhappiest right before a recession. During a recession while the Fed is lowering rates the market looks ahead. That is a historical fact. You might be right.....this time could be different.

[Zeev Hed]

If 10% years treasuries go to 3%, it would justify a much higher PE on the spx. I don't see that unless we have a serious recession and thus major decline in earning (which will naturally bring the PE up even if the SPX stays in place...). An inverse yield curve (at current rates, rather than at 3%) will be sufficient to bring equities down sharply. By the time the the feds come to the rescue (and bring rates back down), the market may first discount a recession, and then a following recovery. Right now, I still think we take 2100, and because we had quite a stretch now attempting, it may carry a little more than just a "fakeout"...

[jetlag]

<<We had a very new and life changing technology taking place>>

While I mostly agree with the rest of your comments, why "had"? A technology cycle is much longer than the 4-6 years implied by your statement. And, while the internet related may have peaked (as far as public interest is concerned, not died) there are others that show quite a lot of activity.

/jet