AZERBAIJAN: WEST MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE FOR DEMOCRATIC BALLOT
Azerbaijan will become even more important if the SCO backs the United States out of Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan. #msg-6987266
see also: Azerbaijan is the Key to Understanding the Region #msg-6273501
Background: What color will the Azeri revolution take? Not surprisingly, that speech was read as a "go" signal for opposition groups across the Caucasus. In Azerbaijan four youth groups - Yokh! (No!), Yeni Fikir (New Thinking), Magam (It's Time) and the Orange Movement of Azerbaijan - comprise the emerging opposition, an echo of Georgia, Ukraine and Serbia, where the US Embassy and specially trained non-governmental organizations operatives orchestrated the US-friendly regime changes with help of the US National Endowment for Democracy, Freedom House and the Soros Foundations.
According to Baku journalists, Ukraine's Pora (It's Time), Georgia's Kmara (Enough) and Serbia's Otpor (Resistance) are cited by all four Azeri opposition organizations as role models. The opposition groups also consider Bush's February meeting in Bratislava with Pora leader Vladislav Kaskiv as a sign that Washington supports their cause.
It seems the same team of Washington regime-change experts are preparing for a "color revolution" for the upcoming November elections in Azerbaijan as were behind other recent color revolutions.
In 2003, on the death of former Azeri president Haider Aliyev, his playboy son, Ilham Aliyev, became president in grossly rigged elections which Washington legitimized because Aliyev was "our tyrant", and also just happened to hold his hand on the spigot of Baku oil.
Ilham, former president of the state oil company SOCAR, is tied to his father's power base and is apparently now seen as not suitable for the new pipeline politics. Perhaps he wants too big a share of the spoils. In any case, both Blair's UK government and the US State Department's AID are pouring money into Azeri opposition groups, similar to Otpor in Ukraine. US Ambassador Reno Harnish has stated that Washington is ready to finance "exit polling" in the elections. Exit polling in Ukraine was a key factor used to drive the opposition success there.
Moscow is following Azeri events closely. On May 26, the Moscow daily Kommersant wrote, "While the pipeline will carry oil from the East to West, the spirit of 'color revolutions' will flow in the reverse direction." The commentary went on to suggest that Western governments wanted to promote democratization in Azerbaijan out of a desire to protect the considerable investment made in the pipeline. That is only a part of the strategic game, however. The other part is what Pentagon strategists term "strategic denial".
Until recently the US had supported the corrupt ruthless dictatorship of the Aliyev's as the family had played ball with US geopolitical designs in the area, even though Haider Aliyev had been a career top KGB officer in the Soviet Mikhail Gorbachev era. Then on April 12, Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld went to Baku, his second visit in four months, to discuss demands to create a US military base in Azerbaijan, as part of the US global force redeployment involving Europe, the Mideast and Asia.
The Pentagon already de facto runs the Georgia military, with its US Special Forces officers, and Georgia has asked to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). Now Washington wants to have direct bases in Azerbaijan proximate to Russia as well as to Iran. #msg-6825938
-Am
AZERBAIJAN: WEST MAINTAINING STRONG PRESSURE FOR DEMOCRATIC BALLOT Antoine Blua 7/13/05
A EurasiaNet Partner Post from RFE/RL
Ilham Aliyev, who took over Azerbaijan’s presidency from his father, Heidar Aliyev, in controversial 2003 elections, has only recently allowed opposition protests to take place, amid heavy international pressure. As the two-day visit to Baku of former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright suggests, pressure is mounting on Aliyev’s administration to oversee free and fair parliamentary elections in November, or risk international isolation.
Thousands of opposition supporters have staged three rallies in Baku in the past few weeks to demand free and fair parliamentary elections on November 6.
Speaking on July 10 at the latest rally, Ali Kerimli, chairman of the progressive wing of the divided Azerbaijan Popular Front Party, insisted that democracy must be pushed forward peacefully. "We will struggle by completely peaceful means, without any exception," he said. "And we will let everybody know this clear position of Azerbaijani democrats."
Recent regime changes in Georgia, Ukraine, and Kyrgyzstan are seen as having reinvigorated civil-society groups in Azerbaijan, while also serving to remind the authorities of what could happen if the polls are not democratic.
Western envoys and delegations from international organizations have crisscrossed the country ahead of the polls in an effort to monitor preparations. One of those envoys is former US Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, who is chairwoman of the US-based National Democratic Institute and is in Baku for a two-day visit.
"My meetings here would indicate that the United States and nongovernmental organizations and the National Democratic Institute is very interested in moving forward on democratic parliamentary elections. It’s the most important thing that Azerbaijan can do to give the people the opportunity to state their views," Albright told RFE/RL’s Azerbaijani Service.
Albright -- who was due to hold talks with Aliyev -- added that the "most stable government is a democratic government." She said a country where the population doesn’t have the right to express itself and where very large oil wealth is widely distributed enjoys "false stability."
Visiting the capital earlier last week, Heikki Talvitie, the European Union’s special envoy for the South Caucasus, said Azerbaijan will remain in Brussels’ sights throughout its election process. Anthonius de Wries, the European Commission’s special representative in Azerbaijan, has suggested that failure to ensure democratic elections would impact cooperation plans between Baku and Brussels. Rapporteurs from the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe (PACE) have recommended canceling Azerbaijan’s mandate in the body if the elections are not fair and democratic.
However, as visiting PACE rapporteur Andreas Gross pointed out on 8 July, the West wants any change to come through the ballot box. "Today, we have to speak about elections," he said. "And those who would like to change anything should engage in elections and not speak about revolution."
Azerbaijan’s government has made several concessions to the opposition ahead of the elections. These include the right to hold peaceful opposition rallies and the release of more than 200 political prisoners since the beginning of the year.
Nevertheless, observers say Azerbaijani leaders appear inclined to block further reforms. They note that parliament on June 28 passed amendments to the country’s electoral law that did not include changes to the makeup of the country’s election commissions. The election commissions are seen as leaning too far in the government’s favor.
Speaking after meetings with the Azerbaijani opposition, Albright highlighted this issue: "There has been a very consistent message, and the message is the necessity for the [Central] Electoral Commission to be a truly independent commission that can help in making clear that the elections are free and fair and open, and a desire for there to be greater diversity in political participation."
According to current law, opposition members must make up one-third of the election commissions, and any decisions taken must be approved by two-thirds of its members.
Albright’s visit to Baku is being compared to former US Secretary of State James Baker’s trip to Georgia in 2003. Baker is credited with helping to persuade then President Eduard Shevardnadze to change the makeup of the country’s election commission. The Rose Revolution followed later that year and swept Shevardnadze from office.
Editor’s Note: RFE/RL’s Azerbaijani Service contributed to this report.
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