Replies to post #127116 on Biotech Values

[MTB]

Many thanks. I like the conservatism, but was curious.

While much remains to be revealed, I think the over-reaction to the recent MNTA news has been significant, and have been buying into it.

Even if ultimately a low prob event, given the extraordinarily large potential size of a negative judgment against them, I don't think risk:benefit is in Amphastar/Watson's favor. For their leadership to risk bankrupcy/ massive judgment for $ 20-60 million/ year is a poor calculus. I'd be surprised to see them launch before this is worked out. So I'm thinking continued revenue sharing will continue for at least a while, continuing to add to the $350M already in.

Then you have Copaxone revenue (higher prob), FOB's leadership(more indeterminant), buy-out potential as significant upsides.

For a stock trading meagerly above its cash value with those upside potentials, I've been appreciating those selling me shares at $11.

Best,
MTB