Replies to post #126793 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

any opinions on how [low double-digit royalty] relates to 45% of profits? 1/2 as much? 1/4 as much?

It’s 40%* as much before taking into account that NVS’ market share will decrease and the Lovenox ASP will likely drop to some degree. If we assume that NVS’ market share goes from 55% to 40% and the ASP declines by 15%, the overall effect is to reduce MNTA’s Lovenox take to 25% of its prior level.

*MNTA’s 45% profit share was equivalent to a 31% royalty on sales.

[go seek]

i recall figuring this once... i think i came up w/ an 80% drop in profits... so if they made a dollar before; after, they make 20 cents

hey (a bright side)... they won't have to pay as much tax.

[rwwine]

Assuming Sanofi launches a generic Lovenox (sL) of their own and dividing up the estimated total sales revenue equally among 4 (Branded Lovenox, sL, mL, & now aL), I estimate MNTA to generate $11.7 Million/quarter with an EPS of -$0.23

**Note - NVS if I recall, will now pay back MNTA some of the original R&D cost in MNTA's efforts to develop mL. I would imagine this is a one time payment to MNTA.