I view war as an even money bet. US obviously is trying to force Saddam from power via threats and bluster. Aside form a few neo-con fanatics, those in power have got to know that plunging into a war is very risky . So in my view a resort to war would constitute a major defeat for US strategy of trying to have your cake and eat it too.
BTW I find the idea that Iraq is threat to the US about as credible as Hitler's claim in 1939 that Poland was a threat to Germany.