Replies to post #125473 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

My gut instinct is it will be north of 5x, but I'm not sure by how much.

A $200M (5x) valuation for the revenue stream in question is not even close, IMO.

rkrw is barking up the wrong tree (IMO) by focusing on a third (i.e. Teva and someone else) or fourth (Teva and two other companies) FDA-approved generic, which is unlikely to ever happen. The real risk to MNTA’s Lovenox royalty stream in the event that Teva is approved is that the new oral anticoagulants take away an unduly large share of the US Lovenox market.

In #msg-64862315, I estimated the potential loss of US Lovenox sales to new competition during the next several years to be 28%; however, if you wanted to be ultra-conservative, you could model a loss of 40% or 50%. Even under such dire assumptions, the present value of the Lovenox royalty stream in any realistic DCF analysis will be very much more than $200M.