U.S. grapples with intelligence threat from China By David Morgan / June 9, 2005
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - China, whose surging growth feeds an incessant appetite for U.S. technology, poses a growing intelligence threat that the United States may be ill-equipped to combat, current and former U.S. officials say.
With the Bush administration embroiled in Iraq and the war on terrorism, intelligence experts fear it may be ignoring a determined Chinese strategy to acquire sensitive technology with commercial and military applications through informal spy networks with potentially thousands of operatives.
Such efforts could eventually erode U.S. economic and military prominence, officials and analysts said.
The FBI lack resources to cope, they said. Also, U.S. corporations face business pressure to transfer key research and development facilities into China in exchange for promised access to its massive domestic market.
Some U.S. companies, which have been fined over the practice, have even struck illicit deals providing China with technology to upgrade its missile systems.
"I would say that we are not paying ... adequate attention to (China), because we have been so diverted by the issues of the war on terrorism," John Gannon, former chairman of the National Intelligence Council, said at a forum this week.
Chinese officials deny suggestions of spying. "The allegation of China's threat is totally groundless," said Chu Maoming, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington.
Spies from about 100 countries sought sensitive U.S. technology last year, according to a report by the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive.
The most determined efforts came from only a handful of nations, including China, Russia, France, Iran, North Korea and Cuba, counterintelligence officials said.
China is viewed as the most serious threat, they said. It needs foreign technology to maintain robust economic growth that attracts overseas investment and creates jobs for a vast population still beset by poverty and unemployment, analysts said.
'FRONT' COMPANIES
As a result, they said, China has adopted a variety acquisition methods including licensing, theft, cooperation and espionage -- some legal and some illegal.
China has about 3,000 "front" companies in the United States that exist mainly to obtain sensitive U.S. technology, according to government estimates cited by experts.
Some 300,000 Chinese citizens and 15,000 Chinese delegations visit the United States annually. An estimated 150,000 Chinese students are at U.S. universities; many are destined for jobs at high-tech U.S. firms or national research facilities.
The Chinese government assumes such individuals "will be intelligence collectors. And many are," said I.C. Smith, a former U.S. counterintelligence official.
A main strategy is for people to collect small pieces of intelligence that can be assembled into a useful intelligence picture, counterintelligence officials said.
Current and former officials expressed doubts about the U.S. ability to deal with China's intelligence efforts, especially as it is embroiled in Iraq and the war on terrorism.
The FBI scaled back its China program sharply after the Cold War ended a decade ago, and still appears to lack resources, despite a subsequent buildup.
"The fact is they need appropriate resources to deal with this, and privately they've said they're severely understaffed," said Peter Brookes, a former Pentagon official now at the Heritage Foundation.
FBI credibility has also suffered from lapses including the bungled investigation of Wen Ho Lee, the former Los Alamos Nuclear Laboratory physicist accused of spying for China until the allegations collapsed for lack of evidence.
I don’t think we’re doing too well in the spy department so we are going around asking countries to tell us more or to be more transparent. Yeah right, that’ll work.
Cases in point:
Our intelligence regarding China is abysmal. How do we deal with our failure to know more about China’s military affairs? Instead of improving our intelligence conduits we encourage China to tell us more. #msg-6622907
Rice also said "the Syrian troops are out of Lebanon, but some of us have doubts about some intelligence forces, and we need to keep pressure on the Syrians to be transparent about what they're doing in Lebanon." http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20050613-012853-8424r.htm
-Am
US Panel Seeks To Shift Spy Money From Satellite To Agents: Report
You can only see so much for 500 miles up.
Washington (SPX) Jun 16, 2005
The US Intelligence Committee in the House of Representatives is proposing a major shift of financing away from costly space-based spying to bolster the ranksof agents and analysts, The New York Times reported Wednesday. The committee, arguing that satellites are consuming too much of the intelligence budget, is sending spending recommendations tothe House floor that would "significantly reposition funding from technical programs to human intelligence and analysis," the newspaper quoted a committee report as saying.
Details and dollar amounts of the proposed cuts to satellite programs are classified, the newspaper said.
The committee report, attached to the intelligence reauthorization bill, said the administration's budget request is "weighted far too heavily toward expensive technical systems," andcalled for eliminating "redundant or unjustified technical collection systems" while increasing investment in human intelligence.
The committee said it was proposing more spending on training and infrastructure to support spies, as well as increasing effortsto recruit and train linguists skilled in Arabic, Chinese, Pashto,Urdu, and other languages.
The Intelligence Committee's proposal appears to reflect the thinking of the presidential commission on intelligence regarding unconventional weapons, which said in its March 31 report that "cost overruns in satellite systems tend to suck resources from therest of the intelligence budget," the Times reported.
"Increasingly, there are air-breathing alternatives to satellite surveillance," the presidential commission said.
U.S. struggles on China-war planning - top officer
I am truly amazed at the US/China propaganda inundation.
I mentioned a long time ago that we would be programmed to accept China as our number one threat rather than Muslim extremists. And the US propaganda machine has hit the pavement running.
China is using strategically placed weapons, intervention and the ability to attack niche vulnerabilities and as such does not have to match the United States. The American mindset that overwhelming firepower is all will not serve us well. #msg-6000806
Nothing is quite as lucrative as a cold war, for some, that is.
China is using asymmetrical warfare.
Most analysts make the grave error of comparing China’s armed forces with those of the United States on an item per item basis.
While the following excerpt was written using a comparative analysis of India and China, the same may be said of the United States and China.
A country’s military potential must be viewed against the backdrop of its military ethos, its determination to win, its ability to take and absorb ‘punishment’, and the ingenuity / innovativeness of its military leadership. In the last aspect in particular, the keen interest of Chinese strategists in ways of waging asymmetric warfare must be borne in mind. Damage far out of proportion to the simplistic military capabilities of a battle group can be achieved by using asymmetric techniques.
“In their book Unrestricted Warfare, [iii] the senior Colonels Qiao Liang and Wang Xiangsui, have proposed various methods of non-military warfare including inter-alia hacking into websites, targeting financial institutions, engaging in terrorism, and using the media. In an interview with Zhongguo Qingnian Bao, Qiao stated that “the first rule of unrestricted warfare is that there are no rules, with nothing forbidden.”
The evolution of Chinese strategy can be traced back to its written history itself. The military strategy of China is identified with its pre-eminent military strategists like Sun Tzu, Sun Bin and others. However, later Chinese writings do not restrict this to a narrow military dimension only. They trace their strategic heritage to a very broad spectrum of ancient Chinese thinkers and scholars, starting from Confucius. The Chinese are a very traditional people. Their traditional roots are very deep and an integral part of their lore is the treatise on military strategy, The Art of War by Sun Tzu. Sun Tzu was a great proponent of asymmetrical war, as were other strategists like Sun Bin and Mao Zedong.
“China’s history of war is replete with examples of the successful use of asymmetrical war, where wisdom rather than valor was used to subdue the opposing forces. In particular one finds great use of D-3 viz. diversionary tactics, deception and disinformation. #msg-6086108 #msg-6622907
The following text is a scare tactic. No mention is made of our forcing China into a defensive position with a predisposition to become offensive. #msg-6797119
The US policy has China as its geopolitical, economic and military fulcrum. A look at the Eurasian map and at the target countries for various US-sponsored color revolutions makes this unmistakably clear. To the east of the Caspian Sea, Washington in one degree or another today controls Pakistan, Afghanistan, potentially Kyrgystan, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. These serve as a potential US-controlled barrier or buffer zone between China and Russian, Caspian and Iranian energy sources. Washington is out to deny China easy land access to either Russia, the Middle East or to the oil and gas fields of the Caspian Sea. #msg-6825938
-Am
U.S. struggles on China-war planning - top officer June 29, 2005
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The Defense Department is struggling to determine the right mix of bombers and other warplanes to fight China if it ever became necessary, President Bush's choice to become the next Air Force chief of staff said on Wednesday.
Lining up such firepower would top his list of priorities if confirmed as the Air Force's top military officer, Gen. Michael Moseley said at his confirmation hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee.
Moseley said the right mix of long-range strike capabilities was "certainly one of the things that we are struggling with" as part of a sweeping U.S. defense review carried out once every four years and currently under way.
"The enhancements that we see in the Chinese military (do) cause concern," he added in reply to a question from Sen. John Thune, a South Dakota Republican.
Moseley who ran the air war over Iraq that led to the ouster of President Saddam Hussein in 2003.
"That is at the top of my list ... long-range strike and the ability to do that for this country," said Moseley, the vice chief of staff up to replace the retiring Gen. John Jumper.
Retired Air Force Col. Walter Boyne, a former director of the Smithsonian Institution's Air and Space Museum, said Moseley likely was referring to the warplanes -- manned and unmanned -- needed to take out command posts, radar installations, surface-to-air missile sites, air fields and military headquarters. Many such targets are deep in China's interior.
Moseley's comments reflected U.S. concern about mounting Chinese investments in ballistic and cruise missiles that could hold forward U.S. bases at risk of attack in places like South Korea and Japan, said Andrew Krepenivich of the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a nonpartisan group specializing in military strategy issues.
"This is not the Air Force saying we want to go to war with China, he said. "This is the Air Force saying if we want to avoid war with China, we've got to be able to hold their critical capabilities at risk lest Beijing be tempted to use force to resolve disputes it has with other countries in the region."
Unique role of China's War of Resistance against Japan
Bush I believe to be stupid enough to push China to the brink.
I had previously posted:
Most analysts make the grave error of comparing China’s armed forces with those of the United States on an item per item basis.
While the following excerpt was written using a comparative analysis of India and China, the same may be said of the United States and China.
A country’s military potential must be viewed against the backdrop of its military ethos, its determination to win, its ability to take and absorb ‘punishment’, and the ingenuity / innovativeness of its military leadership. In the last aspect in particular, the keen interest of Chinese strategists in ways of waging asymmetric warfare must be borne in mind. Damage far out of proportion to the simplistic military capabilities of a battle group can be achieved by using asymmetric techniques. #msg-6622907
Beyond weaponry, asymmetrical warfare and ingenuity the following text gives an insight into the Middle Kingdom’s determination to win and the power of their people.
-Am
Unique role of China's War of Resistance against Japan
July 7 this year marks the 68th anniversary of the outbreak of the Chinese Anti-Japanese War. China's War of Resistance against Japanese Aggression is both an important component of the world anti-fascist war and a relatively independent war against aggression, which played a unique role in winning final victory for the anti-fascist camp.
Two months ago, at the time of commemorating the 60th anniversary of the end of World War II, British newspaper the Guardian published an article, pointing out: The Chinese anti-Japanese war, which plunged Japanese aggressor troops deep into China's battlefield, is one of the important reasons for the allied countries being able to triumph over the fascist countries. This shows that the tremendous achievements of China's war of resistance not only represent the pride of the Chinese people, but have also received universal recognition from the West.
An overview of the matter shows that the unique role played by China's War of Resistance Against Japanese Aggression in the world anti-fascist war is manifest mainly in three major aspects:
Spiritually, it greatly inspired the anti-fascist camp. Before WWII broke out on a full scale, the Chinese people had been engaged in life-and-death struggles against Japanese fascists for many years.
After full-scale anti-Japanese war began, the Chinese people, in both north and south and young and old, pledged to fight to death against the Japanese aggressor troops armed with modern equipment.
They waged bloody battles in Shanghai and major battles in Taierzhuang, and they cracked the dike of the Yellow River and Burned Changsha City, displaying the Chinese nation's heroic spirit of defying the brutal force and fighting battles of "blood for blood".
Materially, they greatly depleted the strength of Japanese troops. Chinese anti-Japanese war is characterized by war of resistance by the entire people, protracted war and guerrilla war; "exchanging space for time" and "accumulating small victories into a big one", this is a magic weapon used to deal with a strong enemy.
During the war of resistance, Chinese army and people, unafraid of setbacks and sacrifices, fought to defend north China after the fall of the northeast and guard central China after the fall of east China; when battles were concluded in Nanjing, they fought in Wuhan, combined regular warfare with guerrilla warfare and frontline battlefield with enemy-rear battlefield; they employed various means to attack the aggressor forces, they successively engaged in repeated bloody battles in Pingxingguan, Taierzhuang, Kunlunguan, Wanjialing and other places as well as in India and Burma (Myanmar), the nationwide surging guerrilla war kept the Japanese invaders constantly on the run.
The Japanese aggressor troops suffered a loss of over 1.3 million people in the Chinese battlefield, their various kinds of strategic materials prepared for use in the Pacific war, such as iron and steel, oil, ammunitions and ordnance were forced to be depleted ahead of time, this constitutes one of the major reasons for the final defeat of Japanese troops.
Strategically, Chinese war of resistance upset the strategic disposition of Japanese troops, winning a strategic interval for the allied countries to adjust their deployment.
Firstly, Chinese war of resistance disrupted Japanese army's "northward advance" plan. Before WWII, Japanese strategists had disputes over "southward advance" and "northward advance" in their direction of aggression. Japan's ground forces favored "northward advance", while its naval forces favored "southward advance".
"Northward advance" meant war with the Soviet Union, fighting mainly land battles, but Japanese million-strong land forces had been bogged down deep in the Chinese battlefield and were unable to fight the Soviet Union. Left with no choice, Japan was forced to give up "northward advance", and turned around for "southward advance".
In 1941 when the war between the Soviet Union and Germany broke out and the German troops had reached the city gates of Moscow, Japan considered attacking the Soviet Union's Far Eastern region in coordination with German army, but this plan was dropped because the main Japanese ground forces were unable to withdraw from the Chinese battlefield.
Consequently, the Soviet Union was able to avoid the emergence of an unfavorable situation of fighting on two lines, this constitutes one of the main strategic reasons for the Soviet Union to strenuously hold on under German fascists' great pressure and to hit back.
Secondly, Japanese troops were made unable to go all out for its "southward advance". Although they launched the Pacific war by choosing "southward advance", Chinese war of resistance made it hard for Japan to concentrate huge ground forces on the Pacific battlefield. As a result, Japan could only employ a petty number of over 200,000 ground forces for "southward advance", which made it hard for them to effectively occupy the vast regions from Southeast Asia to Australia.
While talking about the role of China's war of resistance, the then US President F.D. Roosevelt said with emotion: If there were no China, or if China were defeated, the Japanese army could have occupied Australia and advanced toward India and charged all the way to the Middle East and then joined forces with Adolf Hitler to isolate the Soviet Union, the consequence of its strategy would be unimaginable.
Published on the front page of People's Daily Overseas Edition, July 7, the above article is translated by People's Daily Online
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