I'm glad NicdaSkeptic (I mean Nicdagreek) posted the following on TMF because it saves me the time and energy - his thoughts correspond well with my gut reaction to the news. I think we are now entering the next phase of the story: 2010 A Rambus Litigation Odyssey Every year I try to predict an end to the Rambus saga - last year I predicted 2006, now I'd say 2008 but in reality the saga will likely never end because manufacturers will always balk at the idea of compensating inventors.
I've never thought Samsung was our ally just as I don't believe Intel is our friend. I feel like with both firms, Rambus sold it's soul to the devil and now, with this news, they are trying to sue the devil to reclaim their chance at eternal salvation. The amusing thing is that if any member of society could go toe to toe with Lucifer, it's the lawyers although it may be difficult to differentiate the two.
We must never forget the golden rule when it comes to business "screw/sue your neighbor before they screw/sue you".
One last thought before I post Nic's comments... I wouldn't place too much faith in Mr. Steele's comments or his interpretation of this news. He may be healthy and weatlhy but I'm not so sure about wise. From what I know, he has never done anything to slow the tide of free money passed out to insiders and as the largest shareholder, he is the one hurt the most by the lavish grants. And one would think that owning a large portion of the company would have given him the insight to not ride this puppy down from 100 to 15 where it is now. Some intelligent people and successful businessmen are poor stock pickers and some wealthy people are more lucky than talented.
I'm sure my presence will about as welcome as the plague, but here goes.
I realize people are very gung ho and glad that the home team is striking a posture to defend the homeland. Sammy has now gone from hero to pariah (well, if you had reading my posts from 3 years ago, you would have seen the prior idolatry was not deserved, but that's another story...)
I only have one basic thought to pass around for consideration: when? has litigation ever helped Rambus?
Surely not in Germany where they lost the patent to the EPO? Or Italy where they got no infringement against MU?
Surely not with IFX, who got the (steal) of the century?
And the FTC is not anywhere complete yet. What will they do, too, if the want to bastardize and extrapolate from the IFX settlement?
.....
Sure, we have some SJ with Hynix in San Jose. But, that case is still very much in the middle game, and the appeal is years away. The CAFC has a 50% reversal rate. So, the endgame is completly unkwown.
Maybe it is just me, but I have to say that this failure to sign Samsung to a new deal simply goes to show that, contrary to the prior opinions I see here, Rambus management has learned very little from history. As I see it, despite having hundreds? of potentially relevant patents, they are unable to convince anyone else of the reasonableness of their demands, or the brilliance of their logic. Such failure of closure/persuasion while holding all the presumed ace cards just smacks of ... incompetence?
Maybe all of this is nothing, and we will have a surprise settlement that resolves everything. But from all indications, I submit we are 1 year now into the 7 years of famine I alluded to long ago. This action by Samsung will simply confirm for the MUs of the world as well that the correct approach with Rambus is to litigate with them to the end.
But if everyone here is satisfied with increasing legal costs and diminished revenues for the indefinite future, then this is the stock for you. The only ones making money from all this craziness are.... lawyers and insiders. And both are stroking each other, if you know what I mean.
Good luck to you all, this story has become somewhat more... conventional (legally) and unsatisfying (from an investment perspective) as there are lots of other really promising - as in more immediate possibility of return - stocks.
Da Greek
PS: I really am preoccupied with other things, so please forgive any non-responses for awhile. I am not ignoring anyone, I just don't have time - at this moment - to address each issue that gets raised here. So don't take it personally...
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