lr, I think oil may be in the final run to new highs. The move down off the previous highs had a lot of overlap and turned out to be corrective.
As for tonight's game, Miami will have a tough time, IMO, as Wade will be hurting early and often when he tries to play. His effectiveness should be limited as a result.
I've had various rib injuries (pulled muscles, cracked ribs, cracked/crushed cartilage, etc) and they are not easy to play with. He'd have been better off breaking a rib than pulling a muscle. The pain is sharp when you pull a ribcage muscle, and pain killers don't take care of it.
Shaq will get his points, but he can't carry this team without Wade. If Eldon Campbell bends his legs and uses leverage from his thighs to push back on Shaq, Detroit should do an effective job guarding Shaq in the 2nd quarter.
Eddie Jones, Damon Jones, Udonis Haslem, and Keon Dooling all are good role players, but they have confidence issues. If they are able to get going early on, Detroit will have a tough game on their hands. If Detroit rotates quickly on defense and gets hands in their faces and challenges shots, Detroit has a chance to keep them from having an impact on the game.
Larry Brown also has to show up and think. When he does stuff like put Carlos Arroyo in the game in the 2nd quarter instead of Lindsay Hunter, you wonder where his head is.
One thing people do not realize is if the teams are shooting a low percentage both from the field and at the free throw line, it is often because of the immense energy being exerted at the defensive end. (Shaq and Ben Wallace are exempt from this, as they're normally bad anytime they go to the line).
Experience plays a role in games like this, and Detroit has the edge in that department. I'm anticipating Detroit starting out with a lot of pick and rolls on the left side of the bucket, using Ben Wallace and Rasheed Wallace and swinging the ball around if the play isn't there. They were very effective doing that early in game 1 in Miami. Miami will probably start by dumping the ball to Shaq about 10 times in a row. Detroit's Rasheed Wallace can start hitting some shots if he goes straight up with the shot instead of floating around.
Miami cannot afford to get too far behind, as their inexperience will be a hinderance in that type of situation. I also look for Detroit's Antonio McDyce (sp) to be ineffective due to nerves and lack of big game experience.
The player for Miami who could make the biggest impact tonight is Zo. He's feeds off of emotion, and he could really get the crowd going if he gets some blocks and big plays. Detroit needs to rattle him when he's in there and let Zo play himself out of the game. Zo's a lot like Kevin Willis was in that he's easy to bait and frustrate. Doc Rivers used to get frustrated easily too in big games.
In the end, if Miami wins tonight, they're so banged up they'll probably be swept by the Spurs in the finals. If Detroit wins, they will give San Antonio a pretty good challenge in the finals, especially if they could find a way to neutralize Tony Parker.
I'm looking for Detroit to win tonight, but in a very ugly and close game. It'll be interesting.
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