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Arthur

07/31/11 4:49 PM

#10006 RE: Kanahele #10004

Yes, if that "15%" is real, stays constant (or increases)...
AND if PVSP cease losing its few remaining "wholesale" customers.
Each time they lose one of those, their quarterly revenue drops $25K or so, and they have been losing a lot of that revenue in the past year and a half.

There is also the possibility the company finds new revenue sources. In the past 6 quarters, the company has announced a new initiative every quarter, each one was hailed as the salvation of the company. And every one failed, inasmuch revenues went DOWN instead of pup.

You must also factor the expected losses in the time equation. For example, if the company pasts another $1M quarterly loss at the end of the current quarter, the break-even point recedes another quarter...

My opinion, but I'm not a trader like you wise guys, is 12 months from now, PVSP debt will have gone down only 35%, instead of the expected 50% (because of the other CDs they will be taking meanwhile, each and everyone ADDING to the debt). And the stock price will be down to $0.001

At that point, there will be extremely little interest in the stock, which still has hundreds of millions of dilutives shares scheduled to be added.

So, what is the point of holding shares in that company NOW, if the stock is doomed to go down anyways ? You make money if you sell shares at a higher price than you bought them, no ?
Unless you're a daytrader or a momo player that is able to divine when mini-rally start, and when will peak, there is no money to be made in a stock whose price goes steadily down.

The idea would be to guess when the bottom is reached, and to buy at that time.

But, as I see it, and I could very well be wrong. The bottom will not be reached anytime in the foreseeable future. Not within a 2-years timeframe.

Unless the "miracle deal' is announced, and then the miracle deal actually materializes.
I think that yes, that miracle deal will be announced (maybe several times), and that it will fail to actually materialize into significant revenue.
Just like the GP deal which was "expected" to generate $1.5M per quarter, and has generated $0M net revenue increase so far.