Replies to post #124004 on Biotech Values

[TastyTheElf]

iwfal, mind if I ask for a clarification of a point you made in an earlier ONTY post?

although I do find it moderately compelling to argue that the control group MST seen in START should be a better estimate of the post-hoc subgroup MST for the control arm of the ph iib. And that implies a MUCH poorer treatment benefit to Stimuvax.

Perhaps I am missing a nuance here, but are we somehow under the impression that we know what the control group MST is in START? Clearly we don't. Your "point" seems reminescent of the Shkreli point that the estimated overall MST at the first START interim is 33 months, implying that the control arm has 33 months MST, because the null hypothesis was presumed by Shkreli.

The dog chases its tail there, of course, as that logic would be tantamount to all clinical trials being futile by definition.

Does your quote above mean something other than that? It sounds like you're saying that since the control arm MST for START, which is unknown at this point, is quite high, that proves that Stimuvax isn't working.