Replies to post #123843 on Biotech Values

[oldberkeley]

Vin or Mcbio: I'm looking closely at starting a position in PGNX this week.

Friday's rather dramatic PPS action is puzzling, there didn't seem to be any news, perhaps I missed something.

Any thoughts appreciated, TIA.

[mcbio]

I do like the mention of PGNX at the end of the story that Hammer is opening a position in it. I have owned too much of it for a long time and it has been an anchor around my neck/wallet. I like the deal PGNX struck with Salix a few months ago. with and the payoff should be coming in then next year. I listen to the new PGNX CEO Mark Baker in a recent investor conference and he said that Relistor is being looked at for partnerships in Europe. What surprised and delighted me was that outside the US there would be a 60%-40% split of revenues with Salix, but in PGNX's favor. Something in Europe might happen later this year. I had a chance to make some nice money but failed to pull the trigger on that a few years ago. I have to learn when to sell off portions of my investments when I get the chance to lock in profits.

Yeah, I plan to hold on to my PGNX position for awhile longer. I don't see as dramatic potential upside in PGNX compared to some of my other holdings but I also don't see a lot of downside risk either given the fact that Relistor is already approved and on the market and Salix clearly thinks they can do something with the drug given the $60M they paid PGNX up-front. As Salix mentioned before, it's going to take probably both an expanded approval for Relistor into the chronic pain market and positive Phase 3 results for the oral version to substantially boost sales. I think there is a good shot at the former given the recent safety results that were presented and hopefully there is a good chance on the latter as well though I am never one to handicap Phase 3 results.

I'm really focused on PGNX for Relistor as there is not a lot in the rest of PGNX's pipeline that has me too interested at this point. The PSMA drug for prostate cancer hasn't produced any compelling results at this point but it is still very early stage. There's also the c.difficile antibody but I don't know as much about that. All told, I'm really just in PGNX for Relistor at the moment and would like to hold on to at least see if PGNX gets the expanded approval into the chronic pain market and maybe see if they can get a European partnership that you refer to, to see if that bumps the stock up a bit.