What I do think is that if ERHC / Addax / SNP had found commercial oil or gas they would have announced it and the rigs would already be drilling or scheduled to drill follow up wells.
The massive amount of cash / capital used in the 1st phase is either stranded cash with no return, or a write off (at least in the short-medium term). If it was worth going after, IMHO they would have announced that they were going to do so by now. The extensions on Phase 2 cost keep the options open with little or no addtional cash out of pocket.
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