Replies to post #11825 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

>>is there a perceived market size for ATryn indication (in HD)<<

Plasma-based antithrombin –mostly for HD— currently sells $200-250M annually in Europe and Japan. Sales in the U.S. are minuscule because the only approved product is Thrombate from Talecris Biotherapeutics (#msg-5925270), which is hardly ever available in commercial quantities.

With a modicum of marketing, ATryn can be expected to make good headway into the European market for plasma AT because ATryn is safer than plasma AT and is just as effective. GTCB has not given guidance on what kind of penetration they anticipate in Europe, but 50-60% penetration –producing about $75M in sales-- ought to be achievable without much difficulty.

The sales guidance that GTCB has given is that total ATryn sales attainable from all indications in Europe and the U.S. are $500-700M. (See slide #20 at http://library.corporate-ir.net/library/11/114/114239/items/153342/GTCB_2005_Annual_Meeting.pdf .) Clearly, this figure includes indications, such as burns, for which additional clinical studies must be conducted.

Your questions are good ones -- keep on asking!