Replies to post #123561 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Lovenox’s $993M is the highest amount any US generic drug in has ever sold in a 12-month period. This validates a prediction I made three years ago in #msg-28934793:

If MNTA/Sandoz’s Lovenox is approved and Teva’s and Amphastar’s are not, MNTA/Sandoz’s Lovenox will be the largest-selling generic drug in history by a wide margin.

As Yogi Berra would say, “That hasn’t happened before in history, and it hasn’t happened since!”

[jb_118]

2Q11 generic Lovenox sales = $284M:

Anybody care to hazard an EPS for MNTA based on this sales figure? I haven't been tracking the pass through to MNTA from gross mEnox sales, but seems like it is about 31% of gross, with about 23M in spend and about 51M outstanding shares, roughs out to $1.28/share. Should bring them up to about $3.88 EPS for the previous 4 quarters, for a trailing PE of ~5. Should end the Q with about $6/share cash and receivables.

It seems like others have modeled this more accurately. Anybody else have something less rough?

[DewDiligence]

NVS/MNTA had a 55% share of US Lovenox dollar sales in 2Q11. Here’s the arithmetic:

SNY’s 2Q11 US Lovenox sales were €160M (down from €222M in 1Q11): : http://en.sanofi.com/binaries/20110728_RESULTSQ2_en_tcm28-33120.pdf (page 4 and page 20). At the average exchange rate during 2Q11 of 1.43 dollars per euro, €160M translates into $229M.

Since NVS sold $284M of generic Lovenox in 2Q11 (#msg-65315981), 2Q11 total branded + generic US sales of Lovenox were $513M (up from $469M in 1Q11). 284/513 = 55%.