France rejecting EU constitution hurts Turkey’s EU chances
Will any of this throw France, Germany or even Turkey into Russia or China’s camp?
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Turkey's dreams to join EU grow less likely despite assurances
By Michael Glackin Daily Star staff Monday, May 30, 2005
The European Union spent most of last week desperately trying to reassure Turkey that its dream of joining the 25 nation bloc is still alive. But the truth is Ankara's long-held ambitions to join Europe's exclusive club were holed below the water last week. Negotiations with Ankara are scheduled to begin on October 3, but uncertainty over yesterday's referendum on the EU constitution in France and elections in Germany are likely to scupper talks before they even start.
The European Commission insisted last week there is no immediate concern and Turkey is set to keep its October date. In theory the decision to open negotiations is irreversible, since every EU state signed up to it. But in the real world, the world where political leaders are accountable to their electorate, a very different scenario is unfolding.
French voters looked set last night to reject the EU constitution, a rejection that is partly fueled by public opposition to Turkey's entry into the EU.
France has always been hostile to Turkish EU membership. In a desperate bid win yesterday's referendum, French President Jacques Chirac insisted that a "yes" vote for the constitution would make it harder for Turkey to become an EU member. Chirac told anyone willing to listen that Ankara "still has a long way to go," particularly now the EU is "affirming its values" with a constitution. And just in case anyone remains in doubt, Chirac has already promised to hold a referendum in France before admitting Turkey into the EU fold.
If that wasn't enough to upset Ankara, this month's political turmoil in Germany added to its woes. Eight days ago Ankara's biggest supporter in the EU, Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's Social Democratic government lost a crucial regional election in Germany. The loss forced Schroeder to call for national elections to be brought forward by a year, a move which many believe will propel to power Germany's conservative Christian Democrats, who are firmly opposed to Turkey's European Union bid.
News of Schroeder's early election announcement sent a shiver through Turkey's financial sector. Istanbul's stock market plunged 4.5 percent the following day, while the Turkish lira slumped almost 1 percent against
the euro.
Just in case anyone thought the prospect of government might soften their views, Angela Merkel, the Christian Democrat leader, took pains last week to reiterate her opposition to Turkey's EU bid, insisting that the country be offered no more than a "privileged partnership." Meanwhile former Christian Democrat leader and current head of the party's powerful Bavarian wing, Edmund Stoiber, said he would do "everything within his legal power" to keep Turkey out.
In short any German election campaign is likely to turn into a debate about Turkey's EU membership.
The Christian Democrats have pledged to honor the membership talks. But if Merkel becomes chancellor next September, just a few weeks before Turkey's negotiations are scheduled to begin, Ankara is likely to be embarking on a long and tortuous road which may well leave it further away than ever from its goal of EU membership. Lest we forget, Croatia's much touted membership talks earlier this year were put on hold after the EU raised concerns about its compliance with the Hague war crimes tribunal.
But even allowing for the likely result of yesterday's vote in France and Germany's internal woes, Ankara still has some high hurdles to jump.
Turkey's Parliament finally passed a revised penal code last Friday, one of the key conditions for EU talks to begin. But a number of European officials were unimpressed, citing worries over the "vague wording" of many of the amendments.
Meanwhile, Turkey has only four months to sign a protocol extending the EU-Turkey customs union to the 10 new EU members that joined last year, who include of course the divided island of Cyprus. Turkey insists it is ready and willing to sign up to the protocol but the defacto recognition of the Greek Cypriot government is still not an easy political sell at home. And just to add fuel to the fire, Greek Cypriot President Tassos Papadopoulos keeps reminding his countrymen that he can veto Turkey's entry at any time.
Against this background it's little wonder that an increasingly large number of Turks are getting tired of what they see as never ending concessions which are failing to get them nearer the entry door to EU membership.
Turkey has come a long way in improving its human rights record and its treatment of Kurds and other minorities. But it has further to travel to come up to the accepted European norms. Pictures beamed around the world last March of Turkey's less than liberal policemen violently breaking up a women's day protest have hardly helped persuade EU waverers on the merits of Turkish membership.
By the end of this year Ankara may well have to settle for less than EU full membership. But would that be such a tragedy? The work Turkey has done to make itself compatible to EU membership will not be wasted. Economic reform has made it the darling of the emerging markets. Last year Turkey posted its third consecutive year of growth and now boasts single-digit inflation for the first time in decades. The lot of the average Turk is improving, and even if the new legal code remains somewhere short of perfect, it is a huge improvement, particularly for those women whom the world saw getting clobbered by the police, on its predecessor.
Whether Turkey gets into the EU or not, its leaders cannot turn back the clock, even if Europe's politicians want to.
Michael Glackin is the managing editor of The Daily Star.
AMSTERDAM, Netherlands (AP) - Dutch voters rejected the European constitution Wednesday by an overwhelming 63 to 37 percent, according to an exit poll projection broadcast by Dutch NOS television.
The turnout was 62 percent, exceeding all expectations, the state-financed broadcaster said. The vote came three days after French voters defeated the constitution in a referendum.
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