News Focus
News Focus
icon url

Joeiniowa

07/12/11 1:11 PM

#1239 RE: Danduedil67 #1235

Dan,

What I have learned over time in most industries and specifically the mining industry is that there are three key items you need to have a succesful investment:

1) Management. Bad management will screw you every time. I have not met Larry but everything I have read about him and his actions make me believe we are in good hands.

2) Cash. We have cash to get the project past the feasibility stage. Not having cash or having to raise it every few months is a terrible drain on resources. I am not against picking a partner with some deep pockets but it has to be on our terms and we can be selective given the current cash position. Plus the last financing was done with a bank at a higher level than we currently are at.

3) Property and reserves. If you don't have a good property odds are it will never produce. Unlike a lot of miners that take 8-10 years to get into production we are looking at another 2 or so. Reserves I have no doubt. I think we could all take shovels out there and hit material. My biggest question is can they really mine for .44/lb? Mining is not easy. There are a lot of pieces to any circuit. Typically low grades are not what you want when mining but this certainly seems to be the exception. At the end of the day the companies they have hired seem to be very reputable. I doubt they would let anything be published they did not feel comfortable with.

I will say that if you have questions drop the company a note. They seem very friendly and have always responded to me. Be proactive and get answers to your questions.

Joe
icon url

Traderfan

07/12/11 1:32 PM

#1240 RE: Danduedil67 #1235

Well said. Couldn't agree more.
icon url

value1008

07/12/11 2:03 PM

#1241 RE: Danduedil67 #1235

Dan, i value all your posts... just wanted to clarify your remark from yesterday:

>We will have plenty of time to project our mountains of profits after we actually make it to production.

Yes, it will make more sense to delay any exorbitantly high-end "mountainous profit projections" until we're much clearer on whether AMY is actually planning to process 3.5k, 10k, 20k or 30k tonnes/day of ore throughput, and whether it's feasible for them to scale up even higher in subsequent years.

But certainly we can start making "reasonable, informed projections" before actual production based on the good possibility of 3.5k t/d or 10k t/d and even the 20k t/d (which is roughly equivalent to the mid-level "scenario #2" out of the 3 scenarios that AMY gives in their recent corporate slideshows.

Serious analysts in this junior miner sector do this forecasting of projections (well ahead of actual mine production) all the time, just like LBS's Jim Powell did in his research note on AMY (which conservatively assumed only 3.5k t/d and did not factor in any EMD or LMD production or any other base metals like the strontium found at Artillery Peak).... And, for another instance, you and i did a bit of this "future financial projections" via some back-and-forth emails between us when we were guestimating rough financial projections on BAJ copper with their Mexico mine being built over the next two years.