IMO, China is just an "ENRON'esque" Black-Box that no one will ever know what's inside, because they will just make up whatever numbers they want.
Guys like Jim Chenos can be "right" about China as long as they want. They're like the same guys who shorted Boston Chicken at $5, and kept shorting for years and years and years, all the way up to $50 (most of them covered at the top) until they were finally proven "right" (even though they went ".Q" in the process).