Replies to post #122767 on Biotech Values

[zipjet]

SNY/MNTA has a proportionately larger share of the retail market and a smaller share of the hospital market, so the effect on them may not be strictly proportionate.

Right.

A pill versus a shot in the outpatient setting has huge and obvious advantages. But given the cost delta this advantage may be offset in part by the copay set by third party payers.

ij

[DewDiligence]

[#msg-64848575] analyzes the effect on the overall [Lovenox] market, but NVS/MNTA has a proportionately larger share of the retail market and a smaller share of the hospital market, so the effect on them may not be strictly proportionate. Of course, they could change their marketing strategy.

Your last sentence is the key. If the new oral anticoagulants take proportionally more share from the Lovenox outpatient segment than from the hospital segment (as #msg-64848575 predicts they will), then it’s reasonable, IMO, to assume that the SNY-NVS duopoly will adjust accordingly, arriving at a new equilibrium where each company has close to a 50% share of dollar sales in the combined segments.