Replies to post #122622 on Biotech Values

[JJM760]

Peter

I am in from the 2's as well. To what do you attribute the almost frenzied (but orderly) buying? Since investor day the volume has been very heavy. It is far and away my biggest holding, and I too am tempted at times to sell some.

Problem I have is that I can't find another bio that I believe has as much potential, say 1-2 years out. From a short term trading perspective, a pullback is in order and would be healthy, IMO.

I guess this is the kind of problem investors dream of, so we should be grateful.

[bladerunner1717]

Besides the potential non-NA partnership for Ponatinib (probably sometime this year), the MRK filing of the NDA for Rida (triggering a $25 million milestone) this next quarter, the filing of the IND for the ALK inhibitor (now also an EGFR inhibitor) in the next day or two, the presentation of more Ponatinib data in the Fall, followed by a major presentation at ASH in December, possibly more data from MRK on Rida in sarcoma and other cancer indications, there is also the possibility/probability that ARIA will announce a head-to-head trial vs. Imatinib in first-line, high-risk CML patients. Yes, I know the trial will be expensive and take a long time, but the Market perception of a trial like that may boost the stock as well. Also, Dr. Ron Garren has pointed out that the T315I mutation is found in solid tumor cancers as well as hematological cancers and may have efficacy there as well. A BP might want to start looking at Ponatinib in solid tumors--I don't think ARIA would want to spend the resources there--and imagine what that would do to the share price?

Now is all this worth a $1.6 billion market cap? Well, I don't know. Maybe Peter, Dew, PGS and others may want to chime in. (I do recall that IMCL had a $6 billion market cap before Erbitux was ever approved. But times have changed considerably since then. I don't know what a comparable biotech situation would be today.)


Bladerunner