Replies to post #122466 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

I don’t think a statsig reduction per se in the hypoglycemia rate is a commercially meaningful differentiation; rather, what’s needed, IMO, for commercial differentiation is an impressive absolute reduction in the hypoglycemia rate with no ancillary problems from the new formulation.

Yes, I agree with that.

So the likely outcome—if these products work at all—is several new branded drugs competing for one segment of the insulin market at a time when the insulin market will be exposed to increasing cost pressures from managed care and the availability of biosimilars.

I hear you here, though I'm not as concerned about the prospect of generics in this space, again provided there is clear differentiation, given that we are not talking about, say, expensive oncology drugs. I don't think the cost of Humalog treatment is prohibitively expensive. So, if there's a large enough differentation, I still think the ultra-fast acting insulins could compete.

All told, I think it’s a mediocre business proposition.

We'll see how it plays out. From an investment perspective though, as is often my routine, I don't intend to be in BIOD come Phase 3 or later. I am just hoping they will be able to take one of their new ultra-fast acting insulins through Phase 2 PoC with success, at which time I hope that sub-$100M market cap will be a lot higher. That's kind of my exit strategy, if all goes well.