Replies to post #122350 on Biotech Values

[DewDiligence]

Diabetics contribute disproportionally to the prevalence of cardiovascular, renal, and ophthalmic disease, so one does not have to invest in companies that sell diabetes drugs per se in order to participate in The Global Diabetic Tailwind. Among the companies on my LTBH list, NVS (Lucentis), ABT (Bardoxolone, glucose monitors), PFE (Eliquis), and AGN (LapBand) are indirect beneficiaries of this trend.

I would like to own NVO at some point, but I’m looking for a better entry.

[DewDiligence]

Diabetes in emerging markets:

http://www.inpharm.com/news/171371/diabetes-battle-control

Contrary to perceptions of diabetes as a ‘western’ disease, the International Diabetes Federation estimates that 80% of people with diabetes live in low or middle-income countries [see #msg-52402577 for a related datapoint]. Rapidly industrialising nations such as India and China have a massive, burgeoning problem with type II diabetes.

A recent study published in the New England Journal of Medicine estimates there are now around 92 million people with type II diabetes in China, with 60% of cases undiagnosed [#msg-48221898]. Therefore, China is likely to be a major driver for the diabetes sector over the next decade, and sales growth in the country are expected to grow 15-17% from 2010-2030.

Companies are investing heavily in engaging directly with healthcare payers and patients in the emerging markets. Sanofi is conducting an arm of its Lyxumia trials specifically looking at Asian patients, called GetGoal L-Asia. One of the reasons for this is that Asian patients with type II diabetes tend to be leaner than western patients, which means their condition often progresses differently.