Replies to post #122187 on Biotech Values

[biomaven0]

NVS' recent failure to win approval for its gout drug

RDEA is my pick in the gout space. I think it could work as an add-on to pretty much any other therapy, but mostly should work well as a 2nd line therapy (on top of allopurinol). That's potentially a bigger market than the 3rd line drugs like Savient's Krystexxa).

Stock isn't real cheap though - unclear to me how much of their market cap is attributable to their gout drug and how much to their partnered MEK inhibitor.

Peter

[mcbio]

Any thoughts about BCRX

NVS' recent failure to win approval for its gout drug prompted me to take a look at Biocryst. They have a gout drug in Phase II and the US Gov recently ponied up money for their phase III clinical trial for peramivir (flu treatment). The following bloomberg article peaked my interest.

My opinion is that BCRX is likely to be dead money until either swine flu re-emerges or theit is news on the trial or partnering of one of their candidates. I fully expect that the results of the Phase 3 Peramivir trial will be positive since there is adequate evidence from the 2009 emergency use authorization to draw inferences about the treatment effectiveness. Furthermore, peramivir has been approved in Asia.

The cash situation looks tenuous, but they appear to be looking to partner their gout drug.

I've never thought much about BCRX. How many clinical trials has peramivir already failed? I remember the one from several years ago where they claimed the needles weren't long enough or something. Seemed like a joke to me. Also, gout is becoming an increasingly crowded field and they are behind a lot of people. Not sure of anything that differentiates their gout drug from the competition.