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NewMoney

06/16/11 10:12 AM

#114048 RE: bbotcs #114045

No. You're dreaming.
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tykundegex

06/16/11 10:14 AM

#114049 RE: bbotcs #114045

Only it's "supply and demand" of OIL and not Cabbage Patch dolls.

And most experts agree where oil supply AND oil demand are going in the coming decade. So do most JBI shareholders.
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azs

06/16/11 10:17 AM

#114053 RE: bbotcs #114045

So oil drops and our margins go from 1000% to 700%. Time to sell now.
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jcoukr

06/16/11 10:18 AM

#114055 RE: bbotcs #114045

Natural gas is a good source of home heat but for vehicles the lubrication propertys are nil, and not really a good choice for engines.
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Steady_T

06/16/11 10:53 AM

#114087 RE: bbotcs #114045

Your earlier question got me to contemplating what would happen if oil did drop significantly in price.

As I noted earlier, JBI competitors in the plastic to oil biz will go under long before JBI because their margins are much smaller, which makes them far more sensitive to the price of oil.

JBI might have to reduce the price of it's product to keep selling it, but with the large margins JBI has that would reduce earnings, not put the company in the red.

The unexpected consequence would be that when JBI competitors have to curtail or cease operations, all of the plastic that was going to them now has to go to a land fill with the attendant tipping fees. That will open up new opportunities for JBI.

At present, JBI has locked up plastic supplies with agreements to take the plastic at no charge. A similar strategy as getting the first large sales contract at a good but discounted price. That gets JBI established and assures an immediate market for it's products. There is nothing that says JBI must continue to accept plastic for free.

The point here is that if oil price falls, there is going to a lot of plastic looking for reduced tipping costs. JBI will be in an excellent position to accept plastic at a reduced tipping fee, thereby improving JBI margins to account for much of the lost margins due to lower fuel prices.

Thanks for leading me to than line of analysis. It gives me a greater confidence in the JBI business model and it's robustness.




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Justice37

06/16/11 10:54 AM

#114088 RE: bbotcs #114045

The United States imports 60% of it's oil, JBI doesn't sell natural gas. Opening up the current US oil and natural gas resources, not so easy to do especially after the BP fiasco. If US oil producers could open those reserves so that they didn't have to purchase most of their crude at full crude prices, I think they would have done so by now.

http://www.quoteoil.com/oil-imports.html

How much Exxon pays for oil
http://money.cnn.com/2007/11/05/news/companies/exxon_oil/index.htm



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Steady_T

06/16/11 11:04 AM

#114099 RE: bbotcs #114045

Speaking as a guy who has royalty rights to 5 nat gas wells, supply and demand has already kicked in on the nat gas biz.

Drilling has been curtailed in TX because the price is low compared to oil. The market of nat gas is limited by the piping network in the US. Unlike oil, nat gas is a regional market.

Based on BTU equivalence nat gas should be about $18 per MCF. It presently is around $4.50 per MCF.
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P2OBleavR

06/16/11 12:00 PM

#114120 RE: bbotcs #114045

At the expense of raping our natural environment? I understand the expenses of this pipeline is to destroy the natural beauty and wildlife in one of the last wildernesses of the world Alaska.