File photo of an Iranian Shahab-3 missile launch test. 'Iran's expensive long-range missile program wouldn't be financially feasible "unless you put a nuclear warhead on it,"' Cordesman said. by Stefan Nicola
Washington (UPI) May 20, 2005 Iran's military is focusing on asymmetric warfare and nuclear weapons because its conventional armed forces are outdated, a senior Middle East expert said Friday. "Iran's main intents lie in two efforts: one is asymmetric warfare, and the other is weapons of mass destruction," said Anthony Cordesman, strategic analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a public policy think tank in Washington.
Cordesman, author of "Iran's Developing Military Capabilities," a CSIS-sponsored report assessing Iran's armed forces, and a former high-ranking Pentagon official, also noted that in light of uncertainties about Iran's nuclear capabilities, a military strike on the Islamic republic would be "disastrous" and so a diplomatic approach is the way to go, even if that might not entirely stop Iran from pursuing a military alternative, he said.
Although the United States publicly says it prefers to deal with Iran through diplomacy for now, Vice President Dick Cheney, in a television interview earlier this year, did not rule out the possibility that Israel might hit Iran's nuclear facilities.
Cordesman's remarks come just days before foreign ministers from France, Britain and Germany - the so-called European Union 3 - will meet Iranian officials to negotiate a permanent halt to Iran's already-suspended uranium enrichment program. The step is a key part of both civilian and military nuclear programs.
Iran says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes, the United States and much of the international community believe otherwise. Cordesman agreed.
"Much of the nuclear tests and development efforts in Iran simply make no sense as peaceful research," he said. "I'm almost certain there is a nuclear weapons program now."
Iran's expensive long-range missile program wouldn't be financially feasible "unless you put a nuclear warhead on it," he said.
Speculation about Iran's nuclear capabilities often stretches far from reality, Cordesman said. When observing international intelligence, Iran still is "a significant distance from a meaningful missile and a nuclear capability," he added.
In light of a lack of a credible threat, diplomacy is probably the best way to go, he added.
"If the Europeans' negotiations do nothing more than keep Iran from being overt in deploying and testing, they have accomplished a great deal," Cordesman said.
So far, financial incentives for Iran to give up its uranium enrichment program are lacking, he said.
"Iran desperately needs industrial development, it needs job creation, and it desperately needs to improve technology for its natural gas and oil industry."
The United States supports the European efforts to negotiate with Tehran but has in the past unsuccessfully tried to get the matter referred to the U.N. Security Council.
This time around, however, it has said it will block its opposition to Iran's entry into the World Trade Organization and to the sale of airline parts for the Islamic republic's ageing civilian fleet.
The question remains, however, whether Iran is ready to accept financial incentives on a political level, Cordesman said. If diplomacy fails, the U.N. Security Council has to step in and use "a very decisive political language combined with economic sanctions on things like transportation and shipping that would have significant economic pressure over time," he added.
Although China - a permanent, veto-wielding member of the Security Council - has signaled it will veto drastic sanctions against Iran in absence of a direct threat, the situation might radically change if U.S. intelligence "would find a smoking gun," Cordesman said. So far, there is no clear evidence Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program.
That's why the U.S. administration should continue to push for intelligence-gathering in Iran, no matter how intrusive that might be, Cordesman said.
"If it bothers the Iranians, so be it," he said. "It's a matter of life. It's too important."
Asymmetric warfare - featuring highly mobile guerilla troops and hit-and-run attacks - is thought to be the most effective way to attack a superior military power such as the United States. Iran has about 120,000 people in the revolutionary guards, a force that could deploy asymmetrical warfare in the Middle East, Cordesman said.
"These are pretty capable forces," Cordesman said. "They could very quickly move large numbers of people to a country like Bahrain."
But while Iran's nuclear enrichment programs and its capabilities for asymmetric warfare pose a threat to stability in the Middle East, its conventional military systems in army, navy and air force are "obsolescent," Cordesman said.
In the light of slow modernization of planes, tanks and missile system, which are mostly from the mid-1970s, Iran's capability of a conventional military strike is severely limited, Cordesman said.
"They have a 340,000-men army, but 220,000 of them are 18-months-conscripts," Cordesman said. "Its artillery is old and worn ... and its 1,600 tanks and about 300 airplanes are outdated even by Middle Eastern standards."
Wayne White, a Middle East expert at the Middle East Institute, said Friday in a telephone interview there are incentives for Iran to pursue independent weapon systems.
"Most of Iran's conventional weapons were taken away by Iraq in the last stages of the Iran-Iraq war," he said. "Renewing basic military forces is extremely expensive - we're talking billions of dollars."
I am also searching for omarleeds truly one of my favorite posters. I know only that he has disappeared.
Omar did not post anything that I can remember that would indicate he was ‘different' than the rest. Much of the same type of stuff we see here on iHub.
I have no idea if the following is true. I hope not.
-Am
Where Is Omar Leed? Pakistani Defence Forum > Introductions > Member Introductions farhad20Jul 12 2005, 05:34 PM Some bad news comes from Leeds recently , hope you are fine. awais786Jul 12 2005, 05:40 PM what is LEED, is it a family or something[sorry i don't know this] farhad20Jul 12 2005, 06:02 PM Detectives now believe the London bombings were carried out by four British-born men in what were possibly the country's first suicide attacks.
Security sources said it was likely at least three of the men, said to be of Pakistani descent, are dead, after belongings were found at the scenes.
The details emerged as explosives were found in Leeds and Luton after a series of raids. One man has been arrested.
Solid_SnakeJul 13 2005, 12:11 AM You think he was involved? WOW could be? So we had a terrorist among us? penguinJul 13 2005, 01:20 AM British press calls daders attacks at name
Spent: 13 July 2005 08.13 Last modified: 13 July 2005 08.31
LONDON - the perpetrators of the suicide attacks on the London underground railway and a dubbeldecker bus of Thursday, were young British men of Pakistani origins. Various British newspapers reported Wednesday that the men were not known as extremist islamics and they were not previously suspected of links with terrorist organisations.
Three of the four perpretrators have been meanwhile identified. According to The Independent, the body of the fourth man is in the underground railway train which has been not yet been recovered.
The suicide bomber in the explloded bus supposedly is the 19 year old Hasib Hussain from Leeds, son of a fish-and-chips-snackbar owner. His 23 year old friend Shahzad Tanweer blew up himself in one of the metrotrains. The 30 year old Eliaz Fiaz will have done the same in another underground.
According to a source at the information services the suicide bombers themselves are not the brain behind the attacks, but only their executants. As a result, still apprehension exists that Great Britain victim can once more become of new attacks.
The British police force came on the trail of the suspects through studying CCTV images from the King's Cross station. From that station, the three metro trains, which were attacked eight minutes later, left.
The agents who had to study the tapes in search of the bombers, knew that they probably would be young men with back packs. When they saw images of four men with heavy back packs, had them: "they looked like infantry on the war path, or as if they were going on a hicking holiday", said a source at the police force to The Daily Telegraph.
Also the police force has found explosives in the suspecious car which had been parked at the station of the English Luton. In Luton the four suspected men took a train to the British capital. After the find of the explosives in the car, the police carried out five controlled explosions.
(machine translated from a non-English European news source)
Sniper_007Jul 13 2005, 02:15 AM so what does that mean? were they alqaeda men? or the brits were jus shitting about AL-qaeda's involvement.
i have heard that those guys did it cos the local mosque in there area was attacked by some rash brit boys. so it was sort of a retaliation. thats what i have heard... so if its like this..then my claim of no-alqaeda and brit-n-yank-#### is confirmed..
who knows..but i belive what i know.!
ThE_UnReAcHaBLeJul 13 2005, 07:37 AM QUOTE(penguin @ Jul 13 2005, 01:20 AM) The suicide bomber in the explloded bus supposedly is the 19 year old Hasib Hussain from Leeds, son of a fish-and-chips-snackbar owner. His 23 year old friend Shahzad Tanweer blew up himself in one of the metrotrains. The 30 year old Eliaz Fiaz will have done the same in another underground.
this is no laughing matter crazyinsane105Jul 13 2005, 09:42 AM QUOTE(ThE_UnReAcHaBLe @ Jul 13 2005, 07:37 AM)
What's so funny about this? omega11Jul 13 2005, 01:03 PM how is this related to Omar Leeds?!? ThE_UnReAcHaBLeJul 13 2005, 01:20 PM QUOTE(ISI2003 @ Jul 13 2005, 08:51 AM) this is no laughing matter
i think u didnt read carefully wat i quoted in post . read it again . it has the word "supposdely" in BOLD letters . I was laughing at the western media how they link every terrorist act to Muslims "SUPPOSDELY" . Saddam supposdely buildng WMDs and blah blah blah .
Any way it was a brutal act against Humanity and may GOD rest the souls of innocent victims in peace and punnish the culprits responsible for this terrorism , i mean the real culprits .
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