Replies to post #8102 on FinancialAdvisor's College Class (FACC)

[FinancialAdvisor]

***INTC - An important psychological component to the markets is extremely overbought at the current levels, not only that but the bullish sentiment is rampant. This "semiconductor" is smelling out a top currently and it might be nearer then the masses of the market think.

Case in point, check out the Intel message board over at yahoo and take note of all the 'Strong Buy' recommendations and the lack of 'Sell' or 'Strong Sell' recommendations, what a hoot. So many strong buy signals for a stock not only fundamentally way overvalued but technically as well! http://messages.yahoo.com/?action=q&board=INTC

Note how technically overbought it is here, slow stochs is banging its head on the ceiling at 98 and RSI(14) is through the roof at 81.7, add in that the volume upon this rise is anything but convincing, and we've got a bull-trap here. It's time to short this on any future strength, and put options may have never looked better going forward...

(just making a note here, as I'm studying options, on Friday, the June $25 put closed at .25, while the $27.50 was last quoted at $1.34. The July $25 put for INTC closed at .45)

[Ace Hanlon]

The market certainly is greatly overbought now.

But whether that triggers just a modest correction or something more serious impossible to determine right niow.

I remain extemely bearish medium and long-term.

But the short-term outlook is murky.

[d33c4f]

Your timelines are screwed FA

Equities will top out next week because this shoot wont go up forever. They'll pause, go back to support, then probably rise out again.
Nothing new here

The usd isn't a wildcard. Currencies don't change trend on a dime.
The usd will probably trend up for the rest of the year. Depending on any extreme shots

Commodities will only rise opposed to the dollar pulling back to support.

We'll see gold under 400 and oil probably under 40 before the commodity secular uptrends resume
The stocks however, may start to gain.
But they wont make any new highs with the commodities dropping.
They'll form a trading channel

I have to mention this too, lol, i just noticed the vix ticked a new low friday ;o)
The vix makes no difference to me though

[Gizmo]

The least likely scenario right now is a secondary top right here, right now. Tl's being broken, MA crossovers, shorts busily covering, and everyone else buying hand over fist. That IMO would confound the hell out of this market.