Replies to post #121661 on Biotech Values

[mcbio]

The first ph3 result around mid 2012 comes from "A Phase III, Multi-centre, Randomised, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled, Parallel Group Study of Two Dosing Regimens of Fostamatinib Disodium in Rheumatoid Arthritis Patients With Inadequate Response to a TNF-alpha Antagonist" This is the toughest trial besides the long term safety trial - the other two trials with results in 2013 are more likely to be positive IMO. It's not something I would bet on. It definitely can pop if result is positive. A runup play is not a bad idea, with much lower risk.

Thanks. I didn't realize that trial is supposed to be the first one to report and I agree that it is the toughest trial for AZN/RIGL (to show efficacy of fostamatinib). I believe this is somewhat similar to TASKi3, the Phase 2 trial for fostamatinib that failed. As noted in item 1 of #msg-58251171, RIGL believes they have a better handle on why TASKi3 failed, and I believe AZN has incorporated this into the Phase 3 design, but this is still a very risky trial. So, I think you may be right that a run-up play may not be a bad idea. That, and if those initial results are negative and the stock tanks, I think that would be a great entry point as I do believe the later trials will be successful.

The rest of RIGL's pipeline, along with their cash (I imagine they may do another offering as well prior to initial Phase 3 results, similar to AVEO and many others in the past), serves as some cushion to possibly soften the blow to some extent from any fostamatinib Phase 3 failure so that's why this is one of those rare instances where I am actually considering playing the Phase 3 results. But, knowing the hardest trial will be the first to report changes that thinking a bit.