Replies to post #121398 on Biotech Values

[genisi]

A more recent estimation by The World Health Organization is that there are approximately 170 million people around the world chronically infected with HCV. I think the number of patients with chronic HCV in EU is now higher than that of the US.

[oc631]

The U.S. and Europe represent only about 2% of the entire HCV patient population? That seems surprisingly low to me. I figured that percentage would be much higher.

Eigar Biopharmaceuticals is quoting a 2011 CDC figure of 3.9 million U.S. patients and 150 million worldwide. Even the CDC figures are estimates of undiagnosed patients. The estimated 300 million figure did seem overblown (certainly in relation to the U.S and Europe) where the data should be more accurate. Then again there is 500,000 more U.S. patients according to the CDC than the IMS' latest 3.4M estimated data figure.

Are you thinking $5B/year in peak potential revenue for their pipeline of nukes? Not sure what a fair multiple is but I've seen anywhere from 4 to 8 with some of the larger bios. So let's split that and apply a multiple of 6 to $5B/year and that gets you a $30B valuation if we assume best-case that VRUS does this all on their own at some point when the nukes reach peak sales. Are you expecting 5 years or so before that peak sales mark? If they split those revenues with big pharma, then you're talking about a $15B valuation in 5 years or so, which would be about a triple in that timeframe if all goes well. Not sure if any of these figures are reasonable and just curious what others see as a best-case and a reasonable-case scenario for the VRUS valuation.

I appreciate you trying to model this and in that respect you are bolder than I. At this time there is no way of determining the size of the GT1 U.S. patient pool by the time PSI-7977 is approved. How aggressive VRUS' future international partner will be, the terms of their agreement, and how proactive governments are with HCV diagnostic screening [glad I'm not a analyst] are other factors.






VRTX (less the CF platform) is a good gauge of how the street is valuing a much less desirable asset at approval with North American rights and a large international partner (the other drugs in their HCV pipeline are going nowhere fast IMO). How much value does the market place on telaprevir? I would say close to 8.5B dollars roughly. The market ascribes such value to a drug that works only in a subset of worldwide patients, that will only work in combination with preexisting toxic therapy, and which shares the market with a near identical competing therapy. VRTX pegs the market at 12B in 2012 in GT1 only. PSI-7977 alone or in combination with PSI-938 taken orally will completely dominate the U.S. market when/if either is approved.


I never got any feedback when I suggested the possibility of VRUS early filing a NDA for PSI-7977/SOC in GT2/GT3 next year. I would appreciate if you, Dew, or anyone else would care to comment on the possibility of this happening.